Illinois State vs. Murray State Dunkel Predictions & Vegas Odds - Feb. 18

The Illinois State Redbirds (17-10, 9-7 MVC) square off against the Murray State Racers (19-9, 11-6 MVC) as just 2.5-point favorites on Wednesday, February 18, 2026 at 9 p.m. ET on ESPNU. The matchup has an over/under of 158.5.

Illinois State enters this game after an 83-56 loss to UIC on Sunday. Johnny Kinziger's team-high 12 points paced Illinois State in the losing effort. Murray State heads into this game following an 87-70 loss to Belmont on Sunday. KJ Tenner put up 21 points, one rebound and one assist for Murray State.

Illinois State vs. Murray State Odds and Game Time

• When: Wednesday, February 18, 2026 at 9 p.m. ET
• Where: CEFCU Arena in Normal, Illinois
• Spread favorite: Illinois State -2.5
• Moneyline favorite: Illinois State -140
• Moneyline underdog: Murray State +115
• Over/Under: 158.5 points

How to watch Illinois State vs. Murray State

• TV Channel: ESPNU
• Check out the rest of our Dunkel Index NCAA Basketball Picks!

Betting the Over/Under: Illinois State vs. Murray State

• This season, six of Illinois State's 26 games have gone over Wednesday's over/under of 158.5 points.
• This season, 14 games Murray State has played finished with a combined score over 158.5 points.
• The Redbirds average 76.4 points per game against the Racers' 84.3, totaling 2.2 points over the contest's point total of 158.5.
• The 147.6 points per game these two teams surrender to opponents on average this season are 10.9 fewer than the 158.5 total in this contest.
• Illinois State has seen a 144.4 average over/under in its games this season, 14.1 less than the over/under in this matchup.
• A difference of 5.3 points separates the average over/under in Murray State's games (163.8 points) and this matchup's over/under (158.5).

Betting the Spread: Illinois State vs. Murray State

• Against the spread, Illinois State is 14-12-0 this season.
• The Redbirds have an ATS record of 11-8 in their 19 games as a favorite of 2.5 points or more so far this season.
• In Murray State's 28 games this season, it has 14 wins against the spread.
• The Racers have been underdogs by 2.5 points or more five times this season and have covered the spread twice.
• Illinois State is 10-2 overall, and 8-4 against the spread, at home.
• This year, as a 2.5-point favorite or more at home, Illinois State is 8-4 ATS.
• Away from home, Murray State is 5-4 overall and 3-6 against the spread.
• Murray State has two wins ATS (2-3) as 2.5-point underdogs or more away from home.

Betting the Moneyline: Illinois State vs. Murray State

• Illinois State has been the moneyline favorite in 19 games this season and won 14 (73.7%) of those contests.
• This season, the Redbirds have won 14 of their 19 games, or 73.7%, when favored by at least -140 on the moneyline.
• The moneyline for this contest implies a 58.3% chance of a victory for Illinois State.
• Murray State has come away with two wins in the six contests it has been listed as the moneyline underdog this season.
• This season, the Racers have come away with a win two times in five chances when named as an underdog of at least +115 or longer on the moneyline.
• Murray State has an implied victory probability of 46.5% according to the moneyline set by sportsbooks for this matchup.

Dunkel Index Prediction for Illinois State vs. Murray State

• Pick ATS: Murray State (+ 2.5)
• Pick OU: Over (158.5)
  
• Prediction: Murray State 80 - Illinois State 79