Houston Astros at Philadelphia Phillies Game 5 Betting Preview/Prop Picks
03 November 2022
Time: 8:03 pm ET
Dunkel Ratings: Houston 17.674; Philadelphia 18.008
Dunkel Line & Total: Philadelphia by ½; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Houston (-160); 7 ½
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+134); Under
The Houston Astros pulled off a much-needed win to tie the series at 2-2 last night. Their 5-0 win over the Philadelphia Phillies wasn't just a credit to batting but pitching as well.
Now, they have the chance to actually take the lead in the series. If they can, they'll have one more game on the road before returning home.
The Philadelphia Phillies might've lost last night, but spirits aren't damaged at all. They can rally back tonight with a win and retake the lead.
Considering they have another game at home after this, they could find a way to end it at home. It'll take two straight wins, but the Phillies aren't far from a World Series title. First, however, they have to beat the Phillies tonight.
Houston Astros: Verlander gets the nod for Houston
If there is one pitcher that you'd call on for a win, it's Justin Verlander. During the regular season, Verlander posted an 18-4 record, ranking second in the league.
Not only that, he posted a 1.75 ERA and a 0.83 WHIP, both ranking first in the league. The Astros starting him is no mere coincidence, but he would've been a better option in Game 6.
The Astros batters played very well yesterday as they beat the Phillies 5-0. This season, the Astros have a .248 batting average and a .319 on-base percentage.
Their slugging percentage is .424, which ranks fifth in the league. With who the Phillies have on the mound, the Astros batters will need to be at their best. After last night, spirits are definitely high for the Astros.
Philadelphia Phillies: Syndergaard will start opposite of Verlander
Today's game is going to be the tale of pitching, especially with Syndergaard on the mound. His statistics aren't nearly as good as Verlander's are, though.
He's gone 10-10 this season with a 3.94 ERA over the course of 134.2 innings. He's started against Houston twice this season, pitching for just 9.1 innings. In that time, he's allowed one home run and thrown four strikeouts.
The batters of the Phillies should be able to help their pitcher out quite a bit. As a team, the Phillies have a batting average of .253, ranking eighth in the league.
They have the 11th-best on-base percentage at .317 and a .422 slugging percentage. This team is great at the plate, but they didn't show it in last night's game.
Houston Astros vs. Philadelphia Phillies Betting Pick
The Astros come into this game as the favorites, which isn't surprising after yesterday. They're also starting the better pitcher in Justin Verlander.
So, does that mean that the Astros are the best pick? No, not in our opinion; it doesn't mean they're guaranteed to win.
We'll instead go with the team that is +134 tonight, the Philadelphia Phillies. Yesterday was an uncharacteristic game for them.
Look for them to rally back with a vengeance tonight and get a win at home over the Astros.
DunkelIndex Free Pick: Philadelphia Phillies +134, UNDER
Prop Picks
Houston (-135) UNDER 4.5 Runs
Philadelphia is allowing 4.15 runs per 9 innings on defense, which ranks No. 12 in MLB. That average decreases to 4.05 runs per 9 innings at home. Scores have gone UNDER in seven of the Phillies last 10 games following a loss.
With Dunkel predicting a Philadelphia win by the score of 3-2, take the Astros (-135) to finish UNDER their team total of 4.5 runs against the Phillies.
Justin Verlander (-135) UNDER 4.5 Hits Allowed
Houston is allowing 6.87 hits per 9 innings on defense, which ranks No. 1 in MLB. That average decreases to 4.33 hits per 9 innings over the Astros’ last 3 games.
With Dunkel predicting the final score staying UNDER the Vegas run total, take Verlander (-135) to finish UNDER 4.5 hits allowed versus the Phillies.
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