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GEICO 500 2023 Betting Preview

NASCAR Previews

21 April 2023 By Cole Paganelli

While NASCAR betting favorites don’t always claim pole position, they usually find their way to the front of the pack.

Last weekend at Martinsville was no exception as reigning Cup Series Drivers’ Champion Team Penske-Ford’s Joey Logano (262.158468535085) escaped being lapped in stage one to claim second while Hendrick Motorsports-Chevrolet’s Kyle Larson (262.377) took the lead in the late stages to win his second race in the last three.

This weekend NASCAR’s focus turns from short tracks to the legendary Superspeedway at Talladega and one of four Crown Jewels on the Cup Series schedule: the GEICO 500.

We’ll review recent performances and driver histories for the Spring race at Talladega before giving you the Dunkel Index’s expert NASCAR pick.

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Talladega Favorites with Past Spring Race Success

Hendrick Motorsports has three drivers who compete for the win every weekend, regardless of the circuit. We’ve already mentioned Hendrick’s Larson, but perennial betting favorite Chase Elliott (257.587) returned from injury last weekend at Martinsville with a disappointing qualifying but finishing tenth. Elliot was the last Chevrolet driver to win the Spring race at Talladega, winning in 2019.

RFK Racing-Ford’s Brad Keselowski is a driver to watch at Talladega as he shines in the Spring race. Keselowski is tied with NASCAR legend Jeff Gordon for the most wins at the Spring race in Talladega with four (2009, 2012, 2016, 2021).

Trackhouse Racing-Chevrolet’s Ross Chastain (257.576) is second in the Drivers’ Championship and won the 2022 GEICO 500. However, Chastain has three top-five finishes, and three stage wins this season, but no race wins yet.

Team Penske-Ford has two drivers who have won the Spring Race at Talladega. Joey Logano won the 2018 edition of this race, while Ryan Blaney (258.518) won the 2020 race. We haven’t been impressed with Blaney as the betting public this season, who only has one top-five and four top-ten finishes this season.

Other previous winners include Joe Gibbs Racing-Toyota’s Denny Hamlin (257.092), who won in 2014, and JTG Daugherty-Chevrolet’s Ricky Stenhouse Jr, who won in 2013.

GEICO 500 Favorites Looking For a First Spring Win at Talladega

Joe Gibbs Racing-Chevrolet’s Christopher Bell (255.389) currently leads the NASCAR Cup Series Drivers’ Championship and is having himself a season. Bell has five top-five and six top-ten finishes this season and is close to booking his spot in the NASCAR Cup playoffs.

However, Bell is coming off a 16th-place finish at Martinsville.

Bell’s Joe Gibbs Racing teammate Martin Truex Jr. (263.337) is among the non-winners expected to challenge for the win at Talladega. Truex is more of a short-track specialist, finishing in the top ten in the last two races while finishing 15th at Daytona and 19th in Atlanta.