Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs Betting Preview

It’s hard to call the Denver Broncos and Kansas City Chiefs a rivalry at the moment when you consider just how one-sided it’s been. On Sunday night, the two teams will meet for the 121st time, and the last time Denver beat Kansas City was in September of 2015.

That’s 10 straight wins for the Chiefs, and the last three haven’t been close. The average score of a Chiefs-Broncos game since the beginning of 2019 is 32-8. And in one of those games, Patrick Mahomes dislocated his kneecap in the second quarter.

The Line: Broncos at Chiefs (-14)

The Chiefs are the top-ranked team on the Dunkel Index at 142.597 and have been on the favorite end of some big point spreads this season. The biggest line on any game this season was the Chiefs as 20-point favorites over the Jets. Kansas City covered.

The Broncos are double-digit underdogs for the second straight week, though it’s hard to hold them entirely responsible for last week’s failure to cover against the Saints seeing as Denver had no eligible quarterbacks. In the last six games, all of them as the underdog, Denver has covered just twice.

Kansas City Chiefs

It’s Mahomes, Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, and rookie Clyde Edwards-Helaire at running back. No surprise that this is the top offense in the NFL.

Mahomes simply doesn’t have bad games. Since the Chiefs won in Denver 43-16 in Week 7, Mahomes has thrown for 416, 372, 348, and 462. Over those four games, he had 14 touchdowns to one interception.

Twice in that stretch, the Chiefs gave up more than 30 points, so the defense does have holes. But because of that offense, this is the best team on the Dunkel Index and the favorite to win Super Bowl LV.

Denver Broncos

The Broncos came into 2020 with high expectations. Quarterback Drew Lock appeared to be ready to break out, and rookie wide receiver Jerry Jeudy was going to be deadly playing across from Courtland Sutton.

But Sutton went down, as did a host of other Broncos. Lock has taken a step back in 2020, throwing 11 interceptions to just seven touchdowns. And many Broncos fans are openly questioning if head coach Vic Fangio is the right man to lead this team.

Fangio brought in new offensive coordinator Pat Shurmur, and the offense ranks 31st in points scored.

The Pick

This is obviously a lopsided matchup every way you look at it. The Chiefs are 10-1 and have the league’s best offense. The Broncos are 4-7 and have one of the league’s worst offenses. 
Kansas City is on top of the Dunkel Index ranking. Denver is ranked 21st at 124.580.

A 14-point spread feels like a lot for a divisional game, but the Dunkel prediction has the Chiefs winning by 18. So if you’re going to put money down for Sunday night, take the Chiefs. 

The Dunkel expectation is also for lots of points. The over/under is currently listed at 50.5, but Dunkel is predicting 56 total points.

For more Dunkel picks, check out our NFL picks page.