Colorado Rockies at Milwaukee Brewers Betting Preview/Prop Picks
25 July 2022
The Colorado Rockies have a 43-53 record and rank fourth in the NL West. Tonight, they'll face off against the Milwaukee Brewers, who are 53-43.
The Rockies have had a tough stretch, losing four games in a row. If they can't get it together soon, they could fall even further in the division. The good news is the Brewers should be a pretty good matchup for them.
Milwaukee had a bit of trouble a week ago but has straightened it out since then. Ranking first in the NL Central, the Brewers are 2.5 games ahead of the St. Louis Cardinals.
They've won three games in a row and are now searching for their fourth. We have a few concerns about who they'll have on the mound tonight, however. Let's take a look at each team and make our pick.
Colorado Rockies: Tonight's game is all about batting
Before we take a look at the Rockies' batting stats, we're going to look at their pitcher. Pitching is a vital part of the game, but having Kyle Freeland on the mound could be a problem.
Freeland has a record of 4-7 this season with an ERA of 4.96. Over the span of 101.2 innings, he's allowed 111 hits with only 69 strikeouts. Needless to say, Freeland could spell trouble tonight.
The Rockies will rely on their batters to get them through today's game. As a team, Colorado ranks second in Major League Baseball with a batting average of .262.
They have an on-base percentage of .325, which ranks fourth overall. They're also tied for the seventh-most runs in the league at 445. If they can take advantage of this, they could pull off a win tonight.
Milwaukee Brewers: Bad pitching could spell a loss for Milwaukee
Similar to the Rockies situation, the Brewers are starting a subpar pitcher tonight. Getting the nod is Aaron Ashby, who has an awful 2-7 record as a starter this season.
With an ERA of 4.57, it'll come down to which one of these pitchers can step up tonight. Over the course of 69 innings, Ashby has allowed nine home runs. It looks like the Brewers will need great batting too.
This is really where the two teams begin to differ. The Brewers have a batting average of .238, ranking 21st in the league. They have an on-base percentage of .316, which ranks 13th overall.
The team ranks ninth in runs with 442 this season. In every main batting category, the Brewers fall behind the Rockies. These small differences will play a huge factor in tonight's game.
Colorado Rockies at Milwaukee Brewers Betting Pick
After taking a look at each of these teams, the Rockies are slightly the better pick. This is definitely a close call considering the Brewers' winning streak.
However, with Ashby on the mound and the Rockies having the batting edge, we have to go with Colorado. The Rockies come into this game as +156 underdogs, so the odds are a lot better as well.
Along with taking the Rockies, we're going to pair this pick with the over. In six of the Rockies' last eight games, the total has gone over. The total has also gone over in four of their last five road games.
DunkelIndex Free Pick: Colorado Rockies +156, OVER
Prop Picks
Colorado (-105) OVER 3.5 Runs
Colorado is averaging 4.72 runs per 9 innings on offense, which ranks No. 6 in the league, with a team BA of .262, which ranks No. 2. Scores have gone OVER in five of the Rockies’ last six road games.
With Dunkel predicting a Colorado victory by the score of 7-6, take the Rockies (-105) to finish OVER their Vegas team total of 3.5 runs against the Brewers.
Colorado (+145) Most Hits
Colorado is averaging 9.03 hits per 9 innings on offense, which ranks No. 2 in the league. Milwaukee is averaging 7.97 hits per 9 innings, which ranks No. 21 in the league. That average decreases to 7.91 hits per 9 innings at home.
With Dunkel predicting a Colorado road win while going OVER its Vegas run total, take the Rockies (+145) to finish with more hits than the Brewers.
Aaron Ashby (-165) OVER 1.5 Earned Runs
Colorado is averaging 4.72 runs per 9 innings on offense, which ranks No. 6 in the league. Ashby has allowed 35 earned runs in 69.0 innings pitched for an ERA of 4.57. That ERA increased to 5.79 (9 earned runs in 14.0 IP) in July.
With Dunkel predicting a Colorado victory while going OVER their team run total, take Ashby (-165) to finish OVER 1.5 earned runs allowed against the Rockies.
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