College Football Playoff Betting Preview

The first two games of the College Football Playoff don’t take place until New Year’s Day. But with an unusual bowl season upon us, and most eyes already focused on the four teams that have a shot at winning the national championship, it is not too early to take a look at the betting numbers.

Rose Bowl: Notre Dame vs. Alabama (-19.5)

These are two seasoned College Football Playoff participants, with Notre Dame in the semifinals for the second time in three years, and Alabama making its sixth overall CFP appearance. So the magnitude of the moment, of being just one game away from playing for a national championship, will not be too much for either team.

What may be too much is the firepower of Alabama. It’s hard to remember the last time an offense had three Heisman candidates, but that is what the Crimson Tide take with them to Dallas. 

Quarterback Mac Jones, running back Najee Harris, and wide receiver DeVonta Smith have all received Heisman buzz this season, and for good reason. Jones led the nation in passer rating, Harris rushed for 24 touchdowns, and Smith was named the SEC’s Offensive Player of the Year over both of them.

Notre Dame has that big win over Clemson early in the year and one of the top defenses in the country. The Dunkel Index has the Fighting Irish ranked fifth with 111.903 points. 

But consider this: The distance between Notre Dame at No. 5 and Alabama, which is ranked No. 1 on the Dunkel Index, is the same as the difference between Notre Dame and TCU, which is ranked 27th.

It’s for that reason that not only does Dunkel have Alabama winning, it has the Crimson Tide covering the spread and winning by 24.

Sugar Bowl: Ohio State vs. Clemson (-7.5)

As good as Jones has been this season for Alabama, the real quarterback treat is the matchup in New Orleans between Trevor Lawrence and Justin Fields. Last year, the two future NFL stars treated us to a semifinal for the ages, which was decided in the last two minutes on a Lawrence 34-yard touchdown pass.

In two seasons at Ohio State, that loss in the Fiesta Bowl is the only one Fields has suffered. In three years as the starting quarterback at Clemson, the only loss for Lawrence was in last year’s National Championship Game against LSU and Joe Burrow.

No question that Ohio State is ready for the rematch. But in the history of this series, the Tigers are 4-0, including two CFP semifinal victories. It also includes the infamous 1978 Gator Bowl, when legendary Buckeyes head coach Woody Hayes punched Clemson player Charlie Bauman, leading to the firing of Hayes the next day.

The fireworks in this one will be between the lines with these two great offenses, and in the end, Clemson will prevail again. The Tigers are actually No. 3 in the Dunkel Index rankings, trailing No. 2 Ohio State. But remove the loss to Notre Dame in which Lawrence was absent, and Clemson had the more complete season.

Dunkel says to take the Tigers and lay the points. They will win by 10.

For more bowl picks, check out our college football picks page.