Cleveland Browns at Carolina Panthers Betting Preview/Prop Picks
09 September 2022
Time: 1:00 pm ET
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland 130.207; Carolina 118.130
Dunkel Line & Total: Cleveland by 12; 46
Vegas Line & Total: Carolina by 2 ½; 42
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+2 ½); Over
The Cleveland Browns begin their season going against a familiar face. After sending former starting quarterback Baker Mayfield to the Carolina Panthers, they'll face him in Week 1.
Unfortunately for the Browns, the quarterback they paid millions for is unable to play. Deshaun Watson has been suspended, and instead, the Browns will start Jacoby Brissett.
The Carolina Panthers are led by Baker Mayfield, who's likely looking to prove a point. Things didn't end smoothly in Cleveland, and we expect that it's likely on his mind. With his new team, Mayfield gets a strong supporting class.
Players such as Christian McCaffrey look healthy, while speedster Robby Anderson is his WR1. Let's go over both teams and make our pick for tonight.
Cleveland Browns: Browns' focus will be on the running game
One of the ways the Cleveland Browns have had success is by running the ball. Having Nick Chubb in the backfield will do that for you. Last season, Chubb earned 1,259 yards on the ground, averaging 5.5 per carry.
He ended the season with eight touchdowns and averaged 89.9 yards per game. They'll need Chubb to be at his best against the Panthers today.
Even if they get the running game established, they'll have to throw eventually. Last season, Brissett played for Miami in eleven games. Through that time, Brissett threw for 1,283 yards, five touchdowns, and four interceptions.
Don't expect very many big shots down the field by the Browns in this game. They'll likely go for short completions to soften up the Panthers' secondary.
Carolina Panthers: Panthers' offense should look much different
The Carolina Panthers averaged just 190.5 passing yards last season, ranking 29th overall. This year, we expect a brand new format from the Panthers, one centered around Mayfield.
The good news for Carolina is the return of Christian McCaffrey. McCaffrey is a threat as a receiver and as a running back. If he can stay healthy, the Panthers are in for a strong offensive year.
One area where we think the Panthers will improve is along the defensive line. Derrick Brown makes his return this year after a strong rookie season. Brown can plug the holes that Chubb will look to burst through.
Last year, the Panthers' defense allowed 23.8 points per game, the 21st-ranked defense in the league. Taking on the Browns' running game won't be an easy task.
Cleveland Browns at Carolina Panthers Betting Pick
We feel the Carolina Panthers are going to come out of this game swinging. Expect a few big shots from Mayfield to Anderson to kick off the first drive. However, this could turn into a few turnovers for the Browns.
They have Denzel Ward and Greg Newsome II in the secondary, two strong defensive backs. Mayfield trying to force the ball deep could backfire on the Panthers.
The main key here is the running game led by Nick Chubb. Chubb is easily one of the best running backs in the NFL, and he's a workhorse too. Look for Chubb to lead the Browns to a road victory over the Panthers to start the year.
Keep in mind that the Panthers are 0-7 against the spread in their last seven games.
Prop Picks
Cleveland (-115) OVER 20.5 Points
Carolina allowed 23.8 points per game on defense last season, which ranked No. 20 in the NFL. That average remained relatively steady at 23.5 points per game at home. Scores have gone OVER in six of the Panthers’ last eight games overall.
With Dunkel predicting a Cleveland win by the score of 29-17, take the Browns (-115) to finish OVER their Vegas team total of 20.5 points against the Panthers.
Baker Mayfield (-115) OVER 217.5 Passing Yards
Cleveland allowed 202.3 passing yards per game last season, which ranked No. 5 in the league. That average increased to 236.5 yards per game on the road.
With Dunkel predicting the final score going OVER the Vegas point total, take Mayfield (-115) to finish OVER 217.5 passing yards versus the Browns.
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