Cincinnati Reds at New York Yankees Betting Preview/Prop Picks
12 July 2022
The Cincinnati Reds are red hot at the moment, winning four games in a row. Perhaps even more important is that three of those wins were against an AL East team.
Today, they begin another series against an AL East team, the New York Yankees. Their 32-54 record might be well under the Yankees, but don’t doubt the Reds. They’ve pulled off many upsets already.
The New York Yankees have a record of 61-25 this season and are 34-9 at home. This series could widen the gap even further in the AL East. At the moment, the closest team to them is the Boston Red Sox, who are 14.5 games behind.
This is only a three-game series, but a sweep would put the Yankees at nearly 65 wins. Let’s look at each team and make our pick for today.
Cincinnati Reds: Reds look to continue their winning streak
The Reds find themselves in a tough spot tonight as they face off against the Yankees. They’ll send out a pitcher that they believe can do the job, Graham Ashcraft.
Ashcraft is 4-2 with a 4.35 ERA over the course of 49.2 innings. Ashcraft’s ERA should be concerning for those thinking of betting on the Reds tonight. However, their biggest problem tonight will be at the plate.
As a team, the Reds have a batting average of .240, ranking 19th overall in the league. They rank 21st in on-base percentage with a .308. The tough part for the Reds is that they’ll have to face off against Gerrit Cole of the Yankees.
With Cole on the mound, the Reds batters will have a tough time getting runs across the plate. Now, let’s take a look at what the Yankees bring.
New York Yankees: Cole starts the game for the Yank’s bullpen
The New York Yankees have lost their last two games, proving that they can be beaten. The Red Sox claimed two wins over the Yankees and tied the series. In order to get back on track, the Yankees need to get a win over the Reds today.
They still have quite the lead in the AL East, but they don’t want the losing skid to continue. With Cole on the mound, it likely won’t.
Gerrit Cole has a record of 8-2 this season with an ERA of 3.26. Over the span of 99.1 innings, Cole has thrown 124 strikeouts. The good news is that Cole has a strong set of batters behind him as well.
As a team, the Yankees have a batting average of .245, ranking 14th in MLB. Their on-base percentage of .327 ranks second overall, and they have the most runs in the league.
Cincinnati Reds at New York Yankees Betting Pick
Another big problem for the Reds tonight is that they’re on the road. At home, they might have a better chance against the Yankees. However, New York is 34-9 at home this season and has Gerrit Cole on the mound.
With their batters performing well and coming off of a loss, the best pick here is easily New York. We wish the odds were better, but we’ll take them at -309.
After adding the Yankees to our tickets, we’ll also take the over in this game. In five of their last five games, the total has gone over for the Yankees. It’s also important to note that they’re 5-0 over their last five games against the Reds.
DunkelIndex Free Pick: New York Yankees -309, OVER
Prop Picks
NY Yankees (+105) OVER 5.5 Runs
New York is averaging 5.25 runs per 9 innings on offense, which ranks No. 1 in the league, with a team OPS of .771, which also ranks No. 1. Scores have gone OVER in 14 of the Yankees’ last 19 during game 1 of a series.
With Dunkel predicting a New York victory by the score of 7-5, take the Yankees (+105) to finish OVER their Vegas team total of 5.5 runs against Cincinnati.
Graham Ashcraft (+110) OVER 3.5 Earned Runs
Ashcraft has allowed 24 earned runs in 49.2 innings pitched this season for an ERA of 4.35. The Cincinnati right hander has given up 15 earned runs in 19.1 innings pitched on the road for an ERA of 6.98.
With Dunkel predicting a Yankees win while going OVER their Vegas run total, take Ashcraft (+110) to finish OVER 3.5 earned runs allowed against New York.
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