Chicago Cubs at San Francisco Giants Betting Preview/Prop Picks
31 July 2022
With a record of 41-59, the Chicago Cubs rank third in the NL Central. Through this series with the San Francisco Giants, they haven't shown a lot of tenacity. Down 2-1 in the series, the Cubs will hope that they can capture the final game of the series.
It's going to take quite a bit of work as the Giants are starting one of their best pitchers. The Cubs batters need to be at their best.
The San Francisco Giants have a record of 50-51 and are only a game away from .500. They rank third in the NL West, one of the toughest divisions in MLB.
This series against the Cubs has gone well for them, and they get the added benefit of playing at home. The Giants have a record of 28-23 at home, giving them a pretty distinct advantage tonight.
Chicago Cubs: Can the underdogs come out on top tonight?
Yesterday's game was close as the Cubs narrowly lost 5-4 by the end of the game. In the ninth inning, the Cubs nearly came back to tie it by scoring three runs.
Unfortunately, they were stopped after the third, and San Francisco won. Tonight, they'll send out the 0-1 Adrian Sampson to take the mound. Sampson has an ERA of 3.20 in 39.1 innings.
Sampson being on the mound isn't as troubling as some may think. He's thrown 26 strikeouts in that time and should be able to pitch for a considerable time. At the plate, the Cubs' best attribute is their on-base percentage.
At .320, the Cubs rank eighth in Major League Baseball; they can use this to get an early lead. They'll need to against Carlos Rodon and the Giants.
San Francisco Giants: Rodon gets the nod to start the game
With Carlos Rodon on the mound, the Giants get a consistent starting pitcher. He has a record of 8-6 this season with an ERA of 3.18. Over the span of 116 innings, Rodon has thrown an impressive 148 strikeouts.
In the same amount of time, he's only allowed 91 hits and seven home runs. The pitching advantage in this game easily goes to the San Francisco Giants.
At the plate, however, is where the Giants struggle. This season, the San Francisco Giants rank 23rd in batting average at .235. This kind of average won't help them against the Cubs tonight, even if they won yesterday.
Their on-base percentage of .318 ranks 11th, and they have the 15th-ranked slugging percentage. That being said, the advantage at the plate goes to the Cubs.
Chicago Cubs at San Francisco Giants Betting Pick
The Cubs come into this game as +158 underdogs, and we can see why. With Rodon on the mound for the Giants, the Cubs are at a disadvantage.
However, they nearly took last night's game and have the better batting lineup. Because of this, it's a much better bet to take the Cubs at +158 tonight.
Along with taking the Cubs, we're also going to take the under in this game. The total has gone under in five of Chicago's last six games.
They're 7-2 in their last nine, and the total has gone under in four of their last five road games against San Francisco.
DunkelIndex Free Pick: Chicago Cubs +158, UNDER
Prop Picks
San Francisco (-140) UNDER 4.5 Runs
San Francisco is averaging 4.62 runs per 9 innings on offense, which ranks No. 8 in the league. That average decreases to 2.66 runs per 9 innings in the Giants’ last 9 games. Scores have gone UNDER in five of San Francisco’s last seven home games.
With Dunkel predicting a Chicago road victory by the score of 4-3, take the Giants (-140) to finish UNDER their Vegas team total of 4.5 runs against the Cubs.
Adrian Sampson (-105) UNDER 5.5 Hits Allowed
Sampson has allowed 37 hits in 39.1 innings pitched this season for an average of 8.52 hits per 9 innings. The Chicago right hander’s average drops to 7.06 hits per 9 innings (8 hits in 10.1 IP) on the road.
With Dunkel predicting the final score staying UNDER the Vegas total, take Sampson (-105) to finish UNDER 5.5 hits allowed versus the Giants.
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