Chicago Cubs at New York Mets Betting Preview/Prop Pick
12 September 2022
Time: 7:10 pm ET
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago Cubs 13.988; NY Mets 17.037
Dunkel Line & Total: NY Mets by 3; 7
Vegas Line & Total: NY Mets (-295); 8
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (-295); Under
The Chicago Cubs, with a record of 58-82, head to New York to face the Mets. After two straight losses to the San Francisco Giants, they’re back on the road.
Ranking third in the NL Central, the Cubs could use a win here, but it won’t be easy. They’re facing the best team in the NL East, and the Mets are on a bit of a winning streak. So, how can they pull off a win tonight?
The New York Mets have a record of 89-52, almost the exact opposite of the Cubs. The last two wins they’ve earned were over the Miami Marlins. However, the Mets aren’t impenetrable as they recently went on a losing streak.
They’ll start one of their best pitchers tonight in hopes to earn another win at home. If they can, they’ll increase their record at home to 47-23 this season.
Chicago Cubs: Cubs need to be better at the plate today
The Chicago Cubs have had some serious struggles this season; that much is true. On the road, they have a record of 28-40, one of the worst in the league.
Their most recent win was at home over the San Francisco Giants, a game they won 4-2. As they prepare to face the Mets, the Cubs will start Javier Assad, who has a 0-1 record. Assad, however, has an ERA of 2.93.
Although he’s pitched only 15.1 innings, Assad shows promise. He’ll need help from his batters, however, to put runs up and give him a lead to work with.
The Cubs batters have a team average of .242, ranking 18th overall. They also rank 18th in on-base percentage at .313 and 16th in slugging percentage at .391. The question is will it be enough to beat the Mets?
New York Mets: Chris Bassitt will get the nod on the mound
The New York Mets are sending out one of their best in an effort to secure a win. SP Chris Bassitt will start the game for the Mets, boasting a record of 13-7.
Bassitt has an ERA of 3.24 over the course of 161.1 innings. He’s thrown 153 strikeouts in that time and has allowed only 15 home runs. He’s likely the reason why the Mets are so heavily favored in this game.
Another reason for the Mets being -279 favorites is because of their batting group. Led by Pete Alonso, the Mets have a team batting average of .259, ranking fifth overall.
They also have the second-best on-base percentage in MLB at .330. Jeff McNeil has the best average of the team at .322, and Pete Alonso leads the team in home runs (33) and in RBIs (109).
Chicago Cubs at New York Mets Betting Pick
The Cubs have a lot going for them in this game, but their batting is a big problem. Assad is also a fresher pitcher and hasn’t seen the batting lineup of the Mets yet.
Because of this, the Cubs will likely not be able to keep up with the Mets. Although the -279 is steep, it’s better to take the winner of the game even if the winnings are lesser.
The Mets have Chris Bassitt getting the start as well, who’s a great pitcher. With Bassitt on the mound, the Cubs will have a hard time getting runs across the plate. He also won’t have a lot of pressure on him since he’s backed up by a strong batting lineup.
DunkelIndex Free Pick: New York Mets -279, UNDER
Prop Pick
Chicago Cubs (+100) UNDER 2.5 Runs
NY is allowing 3.73 runs per 9 innings on defense, which ranks No. 4 in MLB. That average decreases to 3.32 runs per 9 innings at home. Scores have gone UNDER in 9 of the Mets’ last 13 home games.
With Dunkel predicting a NY win by the score of 5-2, take the Cubs (+100) to finish UNDER their Vegas team total of 2.5 runs against the Mets.
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