Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Reds Betting Preview/Prop Picks
11 August 2022
Two teams trying to fight their way to the .500 mark face off tonight. The Chicago Cubs (45-65) are coming off of a 4-2 win over the Washington Nationals last night.
After winning that series 2-1, they'll begin another series against the Cincinnati Reds tonight. Coming in as -105 favorites, the Cubs need to get going early. If not, the Reds could run away with this game.
The Cincinnati Reds have a record of 44-66, quite similar to the Cubs' record. In fact, if the Reds win this game, each of these teams will have the same record.
Pitching is a bit of a concern for the Reds tonight, which we'll go over below. They've lost three of their last five games, but all of these losses were to the New York Mets. Everyone knows how hard it is to beat New York.
Chicago Cubs: A fast start is needed to win this one
In their game against the Washington Nationals last night, the Cubs didn't score until the seventh inning. This kind of performance can't happen again, especially against the Reds.
Chicago needs to get a quick start and put up runs from the beginning. As a team, the Cubs have a batting average of .244, ranking 15th in the league.
With an on-base percentage of .317, the Cubs rank 11th overall in MLB. The biggest problem we see is that they rank 21st in runs scored at 454. If they can't put up runs quickly, the Reds will.
On the mound tonight is Drew Smyly, one of the Cubs' best pitchers. Smyly has a record of 4-6 with a 3.97 ERA. With Smyly on the mound, the Cubs have a chance to win this one.
Cincinnati Reds: SP Nick Lodolo could be a problem
There are always a few major factors when it comes to who will win a game. One that we find to be the most important is who's on the mound. Tonight, Nick Lodolo will get the start for the Cincinnati Reds.
Lodolo has a record of 3-3, which isn't bad, but his ERA of 4.40 is a cause for concern. Through 43 innings, Lodolo has allowed seven home runs and 48 hits.
Where the Reds can get a leg up on the Cubs is at the plate. This season, the Reds have done well against opposing pitchers. You can use their recent game against the Milwaukee Brewers as an example.
The Reds put up two runs in the second inning and ran away with the game from there. They'll need to put forth the same performance against the Cubs tonight.
Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Reds Betting Pick
We believe that although pitching will play a large role here, it won't mean a loss for the Reds. Lodolo has had a few impressive games, so keep that in mind when betting. The Reds come into this game as -112 favorites, and we trust them to win at home.
We're going to take the under in this game as well, considering who's playing. Each of these teams ranks in the bottom ten of overall runs. With neither team having an incredible batting lineup, we expect this one to fall below nine runs.
DunkleIndex Free Pick: Cincinnati Reds -112, UNDER
Prop Picks
Chicago Cubs (-125) UNDER 4.5 Runs
Chicago is averaging is averaging 4.13 runs per 9 innings on offense, which ranks No. 21 in the league. That average decreases to 4.08 runs per 9 innings on the road. Scores have gone UNDER in 12 of the Cubs’ last 16 games overall.
With Dunkel predicting a Cincinnati victory by the score of 4-3, take the Cubs (-125) to finish UNDER their Vegas team total of 4.5 runs against the Reds.
Cincinnati (+100) Most Hits
Chicago is averaging 8.23 hits per 9 innings on offense, which ranks No. 14 in the league. That average decreases to 7.96 runs per 9 innings on the road. Chicago is allowing 8.55 hits per 9 innings on defense, which ranks No. 22 in the league. That average increases to 8.69 hits per 9 innings on the road.
With Dunkel predicting a Red victory while holding the Cubs UNDER their Vegas run total, take Cincinnati (+100) to finish with more hits than Chicago.
Nick Lodolo (-130) UNDER 2.5 Earned Runs
Lodolo has allowed 21 earned runs in 43.0 innings pitched this season for an ERA of 4.40. The Cincinnati left hander has allowed only 6 earned runs in 20.1 IP (2.66 ERA) in night games compared to 15 earned runs in 22.2 IP (5.96 ERA) in day games.
With Dunkel predicting a Reds win tonight while holding the Cubs UNDER their Vegas run total, take Lodolo (-135) to finish UNDER 2.5 earned runs allowed against Chicago.
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