Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots Betting Preview/Prop Pick

13 January 2022




Saturday, January 15th New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills



A pair of AFC East rivals are set to meet up on Saturday night in the Opening Round of the NFL Playoffs. The Buffalo Bills host the New England Patriots, and these two teams split the first two meetings of the season.

Buffalo went 11-6 during the regular season to capture the division title, and that is going to give them a home-field advantage in this matchup. The Bills won four straight games to wrap up the regular season, and that gave them the ability to play at home in this one.

New England lost three of their last four games to end the season, and they didn’t look good during that run. The Patriots still finished the year at 10-7 and exceeded most of the preseason expectations that were set for them. 

The Buffalo Bills are four-point betting favorites over the New England Patriots in this playoff matchup.

Patriots Want to Run

The New England Patriots have a future NFL superstar playing quarterback, but they will be looking to run in this game. Damien Harris led the team with 929 rushing yards and 15 touchdowns this season, but the Patriots have other players that can step up as well.

Mac Jones threw for 3,801 yards and 22 touchdowns this season as a rookie, but he must now prove he can do it in the postseason. The Bills do feature a pretty dominant defense, and giving Jones some time to operate will be a key.

New England held Buffalo to just 10 points in the win earlier this season, and it will take a similar effort in this one. 

Time For Allen to Shine

Josh Allen was a heavy betting favorite to win the league MVP this season, but he just didn’t live up to the expectations. Allen still threw for 4,407 yards and 36 touchdowns this season but now is when he need to step up his game.

Buffalo doesn’t always manage a ton of rushing yards outside of Allen, and Devin Singletary will be a key in this matchup. The Bills have to find some offensive balance to keep the Patriots from blitzing all night long. 

Buffalo got great work from the defense over the last few weeks of the season, and that unit will have to take over in this game as well. 

Patriots Pound the Bills

Josh Allen has had another terrific season for the Bills, but you can expect New England to find a way to slow him down. Bill Belichick is a master of creating a game plan, and he is going to make life difficult for the Bills quarterback.

New England already has a win in Buffalo this season, and they are going to look to run the football again. The Patriots are also going to be getting healthy at the right time, and that is going to have an impact on this game. 

Buffalo will have the advantage of playing this game at home, but that’s not going to matter in the end. Bet the New England Patriots moneyline as they take control of this game and cruise to be a big win.

Prop Pick

New England (-125) OVER 19.5 Points

The Patriots averaged 27.2 points on offense during the regular season, which ranked 6th in the league. In their last game against Buffalo in Week 16, New England scored 21 points while the Vegas O/U was set at 43.5 (virtually the same as this week’s Vegas O/U of 44).

With Dunkel predicting a New England win on Saturday by the score of 30-22, take the Patriots (-125) to finish OVER the Vegas team total of 19.5 points.

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