Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Rays Betting Preview/Prop Picks
06 September 2022
Time: 6:40 pm ET
Dunkel Ratings: Boston 15.712; Tampa Bay 16.296
Dunkel Line & Total: Tampa Bay by ½; 9
Vegas Line & Total: Tampa Bay (-165); 7
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-165); Over
An AL East battle sure to be entertaining is set for this evening. The Boston Red Sox (67-69) will face the Tampa Bay Rays (75-58) in Tampa Bay.
Boston currently ranks fifth in the AL East and is hoping to improve its station. However, there are several teams in front of them preventing this from happening. So, how can they get a win over the Rays on the road?
The Tampa Bay Rays are currently second in the AL East. They follow closely behind the New York Yankees, with only five games separating them. Last night, the Rays were able to secure a 4-3 win over the Red Sox.
Tonight, they might have a tougher time being able to get a win at home. Let’s take a look at each of these teams before we make our pick for this game.
Boston Red Sox: Pitching could be a problem for the Red Sox
There are a few things that the Red Sox do remarkably well; one of them is batting. As a team, the Red Sox have an average of .259, ranking fourth in the league.
Their batters is what’s allowed them to win the 67 games that they’ve won. They’re led by Xander Bogaerts, who has a .317 average this season. Bogaerts also has the most home runs on the team with 25.
The main problem for the Red Sox is pitching, which will show up again tonight. Boston is starting Rich Hill, who has a 6-5 record this season.
Although his record is over .500, his ERA of 4.52 is a concern against the Tampa Bay Rays. If the Red Sox want to make a push in the postseason, they need better pitching. They’ll have to rely on their batters to win tonight.
Tampa Bay Rays: Rays looking to go 2-0 against the Red Sox
With one win already under their belt, the Rays are looking to go up 2-0 in the series. This won’t be the final series between these two teams, but it’s an important one.
Any wins that the Rays can get over the Red Sox will help them move up in the AL East. On the mound for the Rays is Drew Rasmussen, one of their best pitchers. They’ll hope that he can secure another win today.
Rasmussen has a record of 9-4 with a 2.70 ERA this season, which is rather impressive. Over the course of 116.2 innings, he’s thrown 103 strikeouts and allowed just ten home runs.
At the plate, the Rays have a batting average of .242, not great, but definitely not bad. The key here is that Rasmussen can hold off the Red Sox’s batters while the Rays put up runs.
Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Rays Betting Pick
At first glance, this game may seem like a tougher choice. The Red Sox have a strong batting group, so many might take them at +140. However, the Red Sox lack a strong pitching rotation and bullpen, which leads us to take the Rays.
Tampa Bay has Rasmussen, who should be able to negate the Red Sox’s batters. During this time, his own batters will begin to wear down Rich Hill of the Red Sox. Boston has gone 2-8 against the Rays in their last ten games.
We’ll go with Tampa Bay -165, and we’ll take the over as well in this one.
DunkelIndex Free Pick: Tampa Bay Rays -165, OVER
Prop Picks
Tampa Bay (-130) OVER 3.5 Runs
Boston is allowing 4.86 runs per 9 innings on defense, which ranks No. 25 in MLB. That average remains relatively steady at 4.60 runs per 9 innings on the road. Scores have gone OVER in five of the Red Sox’ last seven games versus teams with a winning record.
With Dunkel predicting a Tampa Bay victory by the score of 5-4, take the Rays (-130) to finish OVER their Vegas team total of 3.5 runs against the Red Sox.
Tommy Pham (+105) OVER 0.5 Runs Scored
Pham has scored 22 runs in 30 games played since coming over to the Red Sox. The left fielder scored 19 runs in 106 at-bats with a OBP of .330 in August.
With Dunkel predicting the final score going OVER the Vegas run total, take Pham (+105) to finish OVER 0.5 runs scored versus the Rays.
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