Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Rays Betting Preview/Prop Picks
11 July 2022
The Boston Red Sox are quickly establishing themselves as one of the best teams in MLB. With a record of 47-39 this season, they rank second in the AL East.
Although they’re quite a significant way away from catching the Yankees, they’re still second. It’s also important to note that they beat New York twice over the last two days. Now, they face the Tampa Bay Rays.
The Rays currently sit at 45-40 and rank third in the AL East. They follow closely behind the Red Sox, and this series could see them take the second spot.
Tampa is currently on a three-game losing skid; all of these losses were to the Cincinnati Reds. After losing three games in a row, we imagine that morale might be down right now. They’ll need to fight out of it to win this one.
Boston Red Sox: Power at the plate will make the difference
If there’s one thing the Red Sox do incredibly well, it’s batting. At the plate, the Red Sox have a .261 batting average, ranking first in Major League Baseball. These batters are the reason why they beat the Yankees 11-6 yesterday.
They rank fourth in runs with 410 and have the fourth-best on-base percentage at .325. Overall, they’re one of the best batting teams in MLB.
An area where they could have a bit of trouble, however, is on the mound. Tonight, Brayan Bello will take the mound for the Red Sox. Bello has a record of 0-1 this season with an ERA of 9.00. If there’s any weak point in the Red Sox game, it’s Bello.
The hope for the Red Sox is he can start well without giving up many runs. If he can, the rest is up to the Boston batters.
Tampa Bay Rays: It’s necessary to end the losing skid soon
The Tampa Bay Rays are barely holding onto their third-place position in the AL East. Following closely behind them are the Toronto Blue Jays and Baltimore Orioles. There aren’t many games separating them from these teams either.
Tonight, they’ll have the 2-3 Matt Wisler take the mound for them. Wisler has an ERA of 2.58 this season, which is far better than Bello’s.
Considering the Rays have an advantage on the mound, they could do well today. The question is, how will their batters do against Boston? As a team, the Rays rank 21st with a batting average of .238.
They rank 24th in runs with 350 and 23rd with a .304 on-base percentage. There seems to be a massive difference in abilities when comparing teams at the plate.
Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Rays Betting Pick
The most concerning part of this game for Boston is Brayan Bello. Bello has only pitched four innings and already has an ERA of 9.00.
However, it could be that those four innings were a poor representation of his ability. Along with that, the Red Sox have the batting to close significant gaps, as we saw in yesterday’s game.
Boston also has a 24-19 record on the road this season, giving us even more confidence.
They come in at -118, which are pretty incredible odds. Along with taking them at -118, I will take the over as well. The total has gone over in four of their last five games, so it only makes sense.
DunkelIndex Free Pick: Boston Red Sox -118, OVER
Prop Picks
Boston (-145) OVER 3.5 Runs
Boston is averaging 4.79 runs per 9 innings on offense, which ranks No. 5 in the league, with a team BA of .261, which ranks No. 1. Scores have gone OVER in six of the Red Sox’ last eight road games versus a team with a winning record.
With Dunkel predicting a Boston victory by the score of 7-5, take the Red Sox (-145) to finish OVER their Vegas team total of 3.5 runs against Tampa Bay.
Brayan Bello (+105) OVER 2.5 Earned Runs
Bello allowed 4 earned runs in 4.0 innings pitched in his MLB debut against the Rays on the 6th. The Boston right hander also gave up 6 hits and walked 3 in a 7-1 loss.
With Dunkel predicting the final score going OVER the Vegas run total, take Bello (+105) to finish OVER 2.5 earned runs allowed against Tampa Bay.
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