Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees Betting Preview/Prop Picks
16 July 2022
The Boston Red Sox are establishing themselves as a force in the AL East. This is especially true after yesterday's 5-4 win over the Yankees. With a record of 48-43, the Red Sox rank third in the AL East at the moment.
The good news for them is that they're only behind the second-place position by a few games. A win here could move them up another spot.
The New York Yankees, however, are in a bit of a rough patch. Sure, they still lead the AL East with a record of 62-28, but they've lost four of their last five. It's important to note that a few of these losses were to the Boston Red Sox.
The other team to beat the Yankees during this stretch is the Cincinnati Reds. It would seem that the Yankees aren't too dominant right now.
Boston Red Sox: Batting will be the Red Sox's key to winning
Yesterday's game between the Red Sox and Yankees went 11 innings. By the end of it, the Red Sox were able to stop the Yankees at the plate, giving them the win.
Tonight, they'll need to be even better at the plate. As a team, the Red Sox have a batting average of .258, ranking third in Major League Baseball. If they can grab a few early runs tonight, they'll be in good shape.
On the mound for the Red Sox is Nick Pivetta, who is 8-6 as a starter this season. Pivetta has an ERA of 4.08, which may not seem good, but it's worked so far.
The reason why is because Pivetta always has his batters to rely on. With the fifth-most runs in the MLB (427) and the eighth-best on-base percentage (.321), you can't underestimate the Red Sox.
New York Yankees: Yankees will start an ace of their own
As the Yankees step into this game, they'll look to get out of their slump. Their 12-game lead in the AL East will only last for so long if they keep playing this way.
The good news is they're sending Jameson Taillon out to the mound tonight. Taillon has a 9-2 record as a starter with an ERA similar to Pivetta at 4.01. The question is, will it be enough against the Red Sox batters?
The Yankees haven't been too impressive at the plate over recent games. At the moment, they rank 15th in MLB with a .243 batting average. However, they rank first in runs (470) and second in on-base percentage (.327).
New York has a lot of potential as a team, but recent games have shown they're lacking something. This is why we think the Red Sox will take this one too.
Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees Betting Pick
After looking at the Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees, we have to take the Red Sox. Boston's pitching tonight might not be great, but Pivetta has nearly the same ERA as Taillon.
The Red Sox vastly exceed the Yankees in terms of batting average as well. More often than not, more hits equal more runs, so we'll take the Red Sox +141.
We're going to pair this pick with the over as well. The total has gone over in seven of Boston's last nine games.
The total has also gone over in eight of the Yankees' last nine games. Each of these teams can put up a lot of runs, so the over is the best pick.
DunkelIndex Free Pick: Boston Red Sox +141, OVER
Prop Picks
Boston (-120) OVER 3.5 Runs
Boston is averaging 4.73 runs per 9 innings on offense, which ranks No. 6 in the league, with a team BA of .259, which ranks No. 3. Scores have gone OVER in six of the Red Sox’ last eight games overall.
With Dunkel predicting a Boston victory by the score of 6-5, take the Red Sox (-120) to finish OVER their Vegas team total of 3.5 runs against New York.
Jameson Taillon (+100) OVER 2.5 Earned Runs
Taillon has allowed 42 earned runs in 94.1 innings pitched this season for an ERA of 4.01. In his last four starts, the Yankee right hander has given up 20 earned runs in 21.0 innings pitched for an ERA of 8.57.
With Dunkel predicting a Red Sox road win while going OVER their Vegas run total, take Taillon (+100) to finish OVER 2.5 earned runs allowed versus Boston.
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