Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Orioles Betting Preview/Prop Picks
21 August 2022
Time: 7:10 pm ET
Dunkel Ratings: Boston 15.136; Baltimore 14.251
Dunkel Line & Total: Boston by 1; 7
Vegas Line & Total: Boston (-117); 9
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-117); Under
The Boston Red Sox come into this game as -117 favorites with a record of 60-61. Although they rank fifth in the AL East, don't underestimate the talent on their roster.
With an under .500 record, Boston needs to string a few wins together. Tonight, they continue their series against the Orioles, the fourth-place team in the AL East. Last night, they beat Baltimore 4-3.
Prior to their loss last night, the Baltimore Orioles beat the Red Sox 15-10. The Orioles have a 62-58 record this season and are only a few games behind the Tampa Bay Rays.
With the race to win the AL East so intense, a few wins could make a huge difference. Baltimore has a talented roster, and they're starting a strong pitcher. Let's look at each team and make our pick.
Boston Red Sox: Batting will be the key to a Red Sox win
Pitching has been a big problem for the Red Sox this year. Tonight, they'll have Nick Pivetta, who is slightly more consistent and has a 9-9 record. Although it's only a .500 record, it shows that Pivetta is capable of controlling games.
He has a 4.28 ERA in that time and has thrown 130 strikeouts in the course of 136.2 innings. He's a great choice to pit against the Baltimore Orioles.
At the plate is where the Red Sox really excel, with a batting average of .255 this season. They rank seventh overall in the league in this category and 10th in runs with 545.
They have a slugging percentage of .406, ranking 11th in the league, and have an on-base percentage of .315. If they can use their strong batting lineup to their advantage, they could win this game.
Baltimore Orioles: Orioles have a slight advantage on the mound
One of the most important things to any MLB betting pick is who is on the mound for each team. Today, the Baltimore Orioles will start Dean Kramer, who is 5-4 with an ERA of 3.58.
Kramer has only pitched 70.1 innings this year, but in that time, he's thrown 55 strikeouts. Going off of his ERA and his record, we can say that the Orioles have a slight pitching advantage.
Although they have the advantage on the mound, they definitely don't at the plate. This season, the Orioles are batting .239, ranking 20th overall in Major League Baseball.
They have an on-base percentage of .306, ranking 23rd overall. They've scored 515 runs this year, which ranks 17th, and have a slugging percentage of .394. In this area, Boston has the advantage.
Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Orioles Betting Pick
Now that we've gone over who does what the best, we can make our pick. Baltimore only has a slight advantage over the Red Sox in terms of pitching.
We should also remember that Nick Pivetta has pitched far more innings, so his ERA is skewed. It's also important to note that the Red Sox are 6-3 in their last nine games.
It's going to be a close game, but we'll take the Red Sox at -117 tonight. Keep an eye out for SS Xander Bogaerts, who is batting .300, to have a big game.
We'll pair the -117 Red Sox and take the under in this game as well. The total has gone under in eight of Boston's last ten games when playing on the road against Baltimore.
DunkelIndex Free Pick: Boston Red Sox -117, UNDER
Prop Picks
Baltimore (-145) UNDER 4.5 Runs
Baltimore is averaging 4.29 runs per 9 innings on offense, which ranks No. 17 in the league. That average decreases to 4.19 runs per 9 innings on the road. Scores have gone UNDER in nine of the Orioles’ last 14 games versus Boston.
With Dunkel predicting a Boston victory by the score of 4-3, take the Orioles (-145) to finish UNDER their Vegas team total of 4.5 runs against the Red Sox.
Boston (-125) Most Hits
Boston is averaging 8.76 hits per 9 innings on offense, which ranks No. 5 in the league. Baltimore is averaging 8.06 hits per 9 innings on offense, which ranks No. 19. Baltimore is allowing 8.71 hits per 9 innings on defense, which ranks No. 26 in the league. Boston is allowing 8.56 hits per 9 innings on defense, which ranks No. 23 in the league. That average decreases to 8.08 hits per 9 innings on the road.
With Dunkel predicting a Boston victory, take the Red Sox (-125) to finish with more hits than the Orioles.
Nick Pivetta (-135) UNDER 5.5 Hits Allowed
Pivetta has allowed 126 hits in 136.2 innings pitched this season for an average of 8.32 hits per 9 innings. The Boston right hander has allowed an average of 7.56 hits per 9 innings (58 hits in 69.0 IP) on the road compared to 9.10 hits per 9 innings (68 hits in 67.2 IP) at home.
With Dunkel predicting a Red Sox win in Williamsport while outhitting the Orioles, take Pivetta (-135) to finish UNDER 5.5 hits allowed against Baltimore.
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