Birmingham Stallions vs. Philadelphia Stars USFL Week 12 Championship Game Betting Preview

We have finally reached the conclusion of the inaugural USFL season since its epic return, and we have an exciting championship game to determine which team was the best this year.

Today, we are going to dive straight into it and discuss where we should be betting to get some extreme value.

Birmingham Stallions vs. Philadelphia Stars (+4.5)

The Birmingham Stallions and the Philadelphia Stars will meet in this game to determine a champion. These teams already played back in Week 5 of the regular season when the Stallions were able to pick up a 30-17 victory behind running back CJ Marable, finishing with 131 all-purpose yards (114 rushing, 17 receiving) and a rushing touchdown.     

Throughout the season, teams struggled to throw the ball to their top wide receiver when playing against the Stars, as cornerback Channing Stribling led the USFL with seven interceptions. To put that into context, the entire Stallions defense combined for just nine interceptions this season. 

Turnover battles typically decide football games, and Philadelphia had a +8 turnover margin while the Stallions finished the year with a +1 turnover margin. The biggest battle to keep your eye on is in the special teams' department, though, as Birmingham led the league with a kickoff touchback percentage of 26.2 while Philadelphia also led the USFL with 27.8 yards per kick return, so something has to give there.   

With a 9-1 record, the Stallions are going to be the favorite, while the Stars were four and second in their division. The spread is sitting with Birmingham being favored by 4.5 points, but we are going to go with Philadelphia keeping the match close as it seems to be the better play in this game. 

Birmingham Stallions vs. Philadelphia Stars (Over 45.5)

As we touched upon in the previous section, these two teams met and finished with 47 combined points in their Week 5 matchup. However, both offenses have shown the ability to score throughout the year, as the Stars are averaging 26.2 points per game while the Stallions are scoring 23.4 points per game.  

Birmingham does not leave many points on the table with their kicker Brandon Aubrey. He is 18-for-22 on field goal attempts and 22-for-24 on extra-point tries over the course of the season.

Philadelphia does not have a slouch in any sense as Luis Aguilar is 8-for-10 on field goals and hit all 19 extra point opportunities, so kicking has been a strength to add to both teams' scoring plays. 

We talked about turnovers earlier, but forcing interceptions means that the team will typically be getting good field position on them and put themselves in the driver's seat to score some extra points and inflate the total. 

Looking at the entire season as a whole, the over has hit in 23 of the 42 games played (54.8 percent). All in all, these teams are going to put points on the board so go with the over to hit in the USFL Championship Game.

Time: 7:30 pm ET
Dunkel Ratings: Birmingham 109.222; Philadelphia 111.917
Dunkel Line & Total: Philadelphia by 2 ½; 48
Vegas Line & Total: Birmingham by 4 ½; 45 ½
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+4 ½); Over

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All Media on this page by Associated Press.