Belmont vs. Valparaiso Dunkel Predictions & Vegas Odds - Jan. 28

The Belmont Bruins (18-3, 8-2 MVC) face the Valparaiso Beacons (10-10, 4-5 MVC) on January 28, 2026 at Athletics-Recreation Center. The Bruins are favored by 4.5 points as they enter the matchup winners of five in a row and are 8-2 in their last 10 games. The matchup has an over/under set at 144.5 points.

Belmont enters this game following an 80-69 win against Illinois State on Saturday. In the victory, Eoin Dillon led Belmont with 16 points. Valparaiso's last outing on Wednesday ended in a 69-63 victory against Southern Illinois. Justus McNair's team-high 17 points paced Valparaiso in the victory.

Belmont vs. Valparaiso Odds and Game Time

• When: Wednesday, January 28, 2026 at 8 p.m. ET
• Where: Athletics-Recreation Center in Valparaiso, Indiana
• Spread favorite: Belmont -4.5
• Moneyline favorite: Belmont -220
• Moneyline underdog: Valparaiso +180
• Over/Under: 144.5 points

How to watch Belmont vs. Valparaiso

• TV Channel: ESPN+
• Check out the rest of our Dunkel Index NCAA Basketball Picks!

Betting the Over/Under: Belmont vs. Valparaiso

• Belmont and its opponents have combined to outscore Wednesday's total (144.5 points) 13 times this season.
• This season, nine games Valparaiso has played finished with a combined score higher than 144.5 points.
• The Bruins average 82.5 points per game against the Beacons' 70.9, amounting to 8.9 points over the game's total of 144.5.
• This game's point total is 5.0 fewer points than the 139.5 these two teams combine to allow per game in 2024.
• On average, Belmont has had a 152.3-point over/under in its games this season, 7.8 more points than the over/under in this matchup.
• A difference of 3.9 points separates this game's over/under (144.5 points) and the average over/under in Valparaiso's games (140.6) this season.

Betting the Spread: Belmont vs. Valparaiso

• Belmont is 11-9-0 against the spread this year.
• The Bruins have an against the spread record of 6-9 in their 15 games when favored by 4.5 points or more so far this season.
• Against the spread, Valparaiso is 14-5-0 this season.
• This season, the Beacons have an against-the-spread record of 6-3 in their nine games as an underdog of 4.5 points or more.
• Valparaiso is 8-3 against the spread, and 8-3 overall, at home.
• Valparaiso has two wins ATS (2-2) as a 4.5-point underdog or greater at home.
• In away games, Belmont is 6-3 against the spread, and 8-1 overall.
• On the road, Belmont has one win ATS (1-3) as 4.5-point favorites or more.

Betting the Moneyline: Belmont vs. Valparaiso

• This season, Belmont has been moneyline favorites 18 times and won 15, or 83.3%, of those games.
• The Bruins have entered 13 games this season favored by -220 or more and are 10-3 in those contests.
• The moneyline for this contest implies a 68.8% chance of a victory for Belmont.
• Valparaiso has been a moneyline underdog in 12 games this season and has come away with the win three times (25%) in those contests.
• This season, the Beacons have come away with a win one times in nine chances when named as an underdog of at least +180 or longer on the moneyline.
• Valparaiso has an implied victory probability of 35.7% according to the moneyline set by oddsmakers for this matchup.