Baltimore Orioles at Toronto Blue Jays Betting Preview/Prop Picks
15 August 2022
Time: 7:07 pm ET
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore 14.484; Toronto 14.916
Dunkel Line & Total: Toronto by ½; 11
Vegas Line & Total: Toronto (-160); 9
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (-160); Over
The AL East is a competitive division with the New York Yankees currently leading it. However, there are several teams in the division that can move up the ranks.
One of these teams is the Baltimore Orioles, who have a 59-55 record this season. They rank fourth in the division and are taking on an AL East rival in the Toronto Blue Jays tonight.
The Toronto Blue Jays have a record of 61-52 and are at the No.2 spot in the division. Although they are ten games behind the Yankees, they can still catch up with enough wins.
They’re entering a three-game series against the Orioles, which could help them gain ground. Beating the Orioles in all three games won’t be easy, but it’s what the Blue Jays will need to do.
Baltimore Orioles: Orioles are looking to break the losing streak
The Orioles have lost three of their last five games this season. Both of their last two losses were to the Tampa Bay Rays, another AL East team. Falling to 59-55, the Orioles will have to head to Toronto to face the Blue Jays.
On the road, Baltimore has a record of 26-34, well under the .500 mark. Using recent performances as a guide, it’s easy to see why they’re underdogs.
One thing that the Orioles do well is find ways to hit the over. Over their last 12 games, the total has gone over eight times. Getting the start on the mound tonight is Kyle Bradish, who is 1-4 with a 6.42 ERA.
Bradish will definitely help the total go over, but he won’t help them win. It also doesn’t help that, as a team, the Orioles have a batting average of .238, ranking 21st.
Toronto Blue Jays: Blue Jays are dynamite at home this season
The Toronto Blue Jays have a few advantages when it comes to this game. For starters, they have a 35-23 record when playing at home. They’re also starting the better pitcher in Yusei Kikuchi, who has a 4-6 record and a 5.13 ERA.
Although his ERA isn’t much better than Bradish, statistically, he’s got the advantage. Toronto also has a far better batting group.
This season, the batters of the Blue Jays have a batting average of .263. This average ranks second in all of Major League Baseball. They have an on-base percentage of .325, ranking fifth overall, and have scored the sixth-most runs (533).
With their ability to perform at the plate, the Blue Jays being the favorite makes sense. This season, they’re 53-40 as the favorites.
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays Betting Pick
Neither of these teams is starting a very good pitcher, so we’ll have to focus on batting. The Blue Jays have the advantage in nearly every batting category, especially in batting average.
The Blue Jays are also playing at home tonight, where they’re 35-23 this season. Because of this, we have to take the Blue Jays over the Orioles tonight.
Along with taking Toronto, we’re going to take the over as well. We mentioned above how often games have gone over in Baltimore.
However, the real reason why we’re taking the over is due to each pitcher having over a 5.00 ERA. There will be a lot of runs scored in this one, so take the over.
DunkelIndex Free Pick: Toronto Blue Jays -160, OVER
Prop Picks
Toronto (-135) OVER 4.5 Runs
Toronto is averaging 4.72 runs per 9 innings on offense, which ranks No. 5 in the league. That average remains relatively steady at 4.55 runs per 9 innings at home. Scores have gone OVER in six of the Blue Jays’ last seven home games versus Baltimore.
With Dunkel predicting a Toronto home victory by the score of 6-5, take the Blue Jays (-135) to finish OVER their Vegas team total of 4.5 runs against the Orioles.
Toronto (-135) Most Hits
Toronto is averaging 8.98 hits per 9 innings on offense, which ranks No. 3 in the league. Baltimore is allowing 8.62 hits per 9 innings, which ranks No. 26 in the league. That average remains relatively steady at 8.58 hits per 9 innings on the road.
With Dunkel predicting a Blue Jays home win while going OVER their Vegas run total, take Toronto (-135) to finish with more hits than Baltimore.
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (-140) OVER 0.5 Runs Scored
Gurriel has scored 48 runs in 102 games played with an OBP of .359 this season. The Toronto left fielder has scored 29 runs in 186 at-bats with an OBP of .360 at home compared to 19 runs in 191 at-bats and an OBP of .357 on the road.
With Dunkel predicting the final score going OVER the Vegas run total, take Gurriel (-140) to finish OVER 0.5 runs scored against the Orioles.
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