Baltimore Orioles at Cincinnati Reds Betting Preview/Prop Picks
30 July 2022
The Baltimore Orioles are currently fourth in the AL East with a record of 51-49. Over their last five, the Orioles have won four games, one of which was against the Cincinnati Reds.
With a 1-0 lead in the series, the Orioles are looking to add another win to their record. Unfortunately, they might have some trouble with who they have on the mound. We’ll take a look at that below.
The Cincinnati Reds are an unsuspecting team that can perform rather well. This season they have a record of 38-61 but have notable wins over the Cardinals and Yankees.
The Reds are a sneakily good team when they have the right pitcher on the mound. Last night’s game ended in a 6-2 loss for them, so it’s time to bounce back. Let’s look at each team and make our pick.
Baltimore Orioles: Orioles plan to send out Dean Kremer
Pitching is arguably the most determining factor when it comes to winning games. The Orioles will send out Dean Kremer, who is 3-2 this season. With an ERA of 3.06, Kremer has shown some promise this season.
However, he’s only pitched 47 innings and has allowed 48 hits during that time. He’ll have to dial it in against the Cincinnati Reds, who are .240 at the plate.
The Baltimore Orioles have a below-average batting group. Overall, the Orioles rank 25th in MLB with a team batting average of .234. They have an on-base percentage of .303, which ranks 24th overall, and are 21st in runs (421).
Still, the Orioles have a winning record which is the most important thing. Tonight, they come in as -112 favorites over the Cincinnati Reds.
Cincinnati Reds: The struggling Mahle takes the mound today
With Kremer getting the nod for the Orioles, the Reds decided on Tyler Mahle. Mahle has a record of 4-7 this season with an ERA of 4.48. The good news for Mahle is that the Orioles aren’t the best batting team.
The bad news is that Mahle has allowed 12 home runs this season and 86 hits over 98.1 innings. So, the Reds batters will likely need to bail him out.
Cincinnati has an average batting group, ranking 18th overall in batting average at .240. Leading the team is Brandon Drury, who has an average of .271.
Drury also leads the team in home runs (19) and RBIs (57). The third-baseman will definitely need to help his team out tonight against the Orioles and Kremer. The question is, will it be enough to win?
Baltimore Orioles at Cincinnati Reds Betting Pick
The Cincinnati Reds have a few advantages in this game, mainly at the plate. However, the Baltimore Orioles have the edge in the pitching category.
With Kremer on the mound, the Orioles should be able to hold off the Reds batters. Contrarily, Mahle on the mound for the Reds means the Orioles could score a few runs quickly.
Down the stretch of this game, the Orioles should pick up a few runs as well. Their 6-2 win was evidence of that as they scored four runs in the ninth inning. We’ll go with the Orioles at -112 tonight and pair that with the under as well.
DunkelIndex Free Pick: Baltimore Orioles -112, UNDER
Prop Picks
Cincinnati (-130) UNDER 4.5 Runs
Cincinnati is averaging 4.37 runs per 9 innings on offense, which ranks No. 17 in the league. Baltimore is allowing 4.21 runs per 9 innings on defense, which ranks No. 11 in the league. That average decreases to 2.40 runs per 9 innings over the Orioles’ last five games. Scores have gone UNDER in 17 of Baltimore’s last 23 interleague games.
With Dunkel predicting a Baltimore road victory by the score of 4-2, take the Reds (-130) to finish UNDER their Vegas team total of 4.5 runs against the Orioles.
Baltimore (-115) Most Hits
Baltimore is averaging 7.91 hits per 9 innings on offense, which ranks No. 23 in the league. Cincinnati is allowing 8.70 hits per 9 innings on defense, which ranks No. 26 in the league. That average increases to 9.30 hits per 9 innings at home.
With Dunkel predicting an Orioles road win while holding the Reds UNDER their Vegas run total, take Baltimore (-115) to finish with more hits than Cincinnati.
Dean Kremer (+115) UNDER 2.5 Earned Runs
Kremer has allowed 16 earned runs in 47.0 innings pitched this season for an ERA of 3.06. The Baltimore right hander’s ERA decreases to 1.66 (4 earned runs in 21.2 IP) on the road.
With Dunkel predicting the final score staying UNDER the Vegas total, take Kremer (+115) to finish UNDER 2.5 earned runs allowed versus the Reds.
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