Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview/Prop Picks
26 July 2022
The Atlanta Braves are easily one of the best teams in the NL East. With a record of 58-40, they currently rank second in the division, only two games behind the Mets. If they can get a win here, they can close that gap a little and get closer to a takeover.
However, yesterday's 6-4 loss was proof that the Phillies are a tough team to beat. Atlanta needs to pull out all the stops tonight.
The Philadelphia Phillies have a record of 50-46 this season and are third in the NL East. They're quite a few games behind the Braves but not an overwhelming amount of games away.
All the Phillies need to do is focus on playing the same way they did yesterday. If they can do that, the Phillies should be able to add another win to their column. If not, there's one game left.
Atlanta Braves: Braves need to be better on the mound
The Atlanta Braves gave up six runs yesterday, something that can't happen tonight. The big problem is the Braves had a 3-0 lead at the top of the second inning.
From there, the game cascaded in favor of the Phillies. In the eighth inning alone, the Braves allowed the Phillies to put up eight runs. Better performance on the mound should help them win tonight.
Tasked with shutting down the Phillies batters is Spencer Strider, who is 4-3 as a starter. Strider has an ERA of 3.03 over the course of 74.1 innings. Perhaps more impressive is the fact he's thrown 114 strikeouts in that time.
Strider being on the mound will definitely boost the Braves' chances of winning tonight. Their batters will have to do some heavy lifting tonight as well.
Philadelphia Phillies: Batting is what the Phillies do best
The comeback victory that the Phillies pulled off is a testament to their batters. As a team, the Phillies have a batting average of .245, ranking 15th overall.
They have an on-base percentage of .310, which ranks 20th. They also have 444 runs this year, which puts them at ninth in Major League Baseball. They'll need to put all of this together to add another win to their record.
The Phillies have won only two of their last five games. However, before their losing streak, they pulled off a sweep over the Marlins. It might not seem like much, but the Phillies are a consistent team.
Getting the start on the mound today is Aaron Nola, who is 6-7 this season. Nola has an ERA of 3.13 over the course of 126.2 innings and has thrown 137 strikeouts.
Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Phillies Betting Pick
As you can see, each of these teams is starting a relatively strong pitcher. Between the two, Strider has a better ERA but only slightly. Nola has a great 3.13 ERA and has thrown 137 strikeouts this season.
Combining Nola with the batting of the Phillies and you have a recipe for a win. Plus, the Phillies come in as +102 underdogs, so you'll earn better winnings.
At home, the Phillies are 25-24 this season, just barely over the .500 mark. A win here will push them closer to overtaking the Braves in the NL East.
Along with taking the Phillies, we're going to take the over as well. Last night's game was an indication that these teams can put up quite a few runs together.
DunkelIndex Free Pick: Philadelphia Phillies +102, OVER
Prop Picks
Philadelphia (-105) OVER 3.5 Runs
Philadelphia is averaging 4.63 runs per 9 innings on offense, which ranks No. 7 in the league, with a team OPS of .726, which ranks No. 9. Scores have gone OVER in six of the Phillies’ last eight games versus Atlanta.
With Dunkel predicting a Philadelphia victory by the score of 5-4, take the Phillies (-105) to finish OVER their Vegas team total of 3.5 runs against the Braves.
Aaron Nola (-105) OVER 2.5 Earned Runs
Atlanta is averaging 4.76 runs per 9 innings on offense, which ranks No. 4 in the league. Nola has allowed 44 earned runs in 126.2 innings pitched for an ERA of 3.13. That ERA has increased to 4.15 (26 earned runs in 56.1 IP) at home.
With Dunkel predicting a Philadelphia victory by the score of 5-4, take Nola (-105) to finish OVER 2.5 earned runs allowed against the Braves.
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