Arnold Palmer Invitational Betting Preview/Player Props
01 March 2021
The Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill, which is outside of Orlando, Florida, will tee off on Thursday, March 4th. This historic event will feature top-rank golfers playing at a reputable course and looking to add another victory to their resumes as the PGA Tour continues in full swing.
Betting Overview
The competition is tough once again, with nine of the top twenty golfers in the world competing against the field. This is led by 2018 champion Rory McIlroy and the defending champion in Tyrrell Hatton.
International players have dominated the field in recent years at Bay Hill. In fact, the last five champions have not been from the United States, as Matt Every, for example, won his back-to-back titles in 2014, and 2015 was the last time an American has won here.
This tournament is considered an elite status. The winner will earn a three-year exemption, as opposed to the usual two that are offered regularly.
Dunkel Index For This Event
The Dunkel Index is showing these top 10 golfers that could win this event. The following 10 are:
- Patrick Reed -8.743
- Viktor Hovland -10.697
- Billy Horschel -12.251
- Bryson DeChambeau -12.408
- Max Homa -12.983
- Paul Casey -12.998
- Rory McIlroy -13.356
- Christiaan Bezuidenhout -14.033
- Kevin Na -14.498
- Louis Oosthuizen -14.679
*index is subject to changes
Head To Head Battle to Watch
Rory McIlroy is the favorite to win in the betting markets over Viktor Hovland. However, when looking at a head-to-head perspective, this will be an interesting battle.
You have the eighth-ranked golfer in the world coming up against the 14th best in Hovland. Both have been playing quite a different series of golf lately, with Hovland arguably having the better time.
Golfers That Could Win
Rory Mcllroy is a wildcard to some since he has dropped to the eighth-best in the world and won this event in 2018. He still is a valuable threat to the board of performing well.
Tyrrell Hatton is fairly high on the betting market board to repeat. However, the index has not been fond of his recent performances. Still, he has a chance to at least perform well as the fifth-ranked golfer in the world.
Bryson DeChambeau is another name to consider heading into this event. He is the 10th best golfer in the world and has come close a few times.
Potential Winning Pick
Viktor Hovland (+1200)
Hovland is arguably playing the best golf out of anyone on the field right now. He has a win under his belt for the current season coming in at the Mayakoba Classic.
Looking at his last three tournaments has been in contention. These include a pair of runner-ups and a T-5 finish.
What makes him dangerous right now is that he is playing at different courses and performing well on a consistent basis, not at just one particular place or a favorite. With that in mind, he has a great shot at claiming another victory at the Invitational.
PLAYER PROPS
TOP 10 FINISH: Paul Casey (+225)
Paul Casey suffered through an off-year in 2020, dragged down by what he called the “soulless” environment of playing tournament golf without fans. But the 43-year-old Englishman has hit 2021 as a rejuvenated player.
His first two tournaments in the U.S. have resulted in Top 10 finishes with an 8th place at The American Express followed by a 6th at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. Casey also carried that momentum overseas as he took the Dubai Desert Classic in late January by four shots.
It was his first title since 2019 and marked the 15th on the European Tour. Coming into this week’s tournament as the 6th-rated golfer according to the Dunkel Index, Casey is a solid play (+225) to finish in the Top 10.
TOP 20 FINISH: Jordan Spieth (+138)
Like Casey, Jordan Spieth has revitalized his game after inexplicitly disappearing the last two seasons. Falling all the way to No. 61 in the world rankings, the 11-time PGA champion wasn’t even invited to last week’s World Golf Championships at The Concession. But that opens up an opportunity to play in his first Arnold Palmer Invitational this week.
And Spieth’s game looks ready to take advantage. He started off the year with a 4th place finish at the Waste Management Phoenix Open and followed that up with a 3rd at the AT&T Pebble Beach. He cooled off a bit at The Genesis Invitational, but still finished in a tie for 15th.
The 2015 PGA Player of the Year and 3-time major champ is still working his way back, but a Top 20 finish (+138) this week looks good for the player rated 15th in the Dunkel Index.
MAKE THE CUT: Cameron Tringale (-250)
Tringale had a solid 2020 as he made the cut in 14 of 18 tournaments. He’s started off the 2021 season even better.
He shot a final round 62 and missed a playoff by only one stroke while finishing 3rd at the RSM Classic. Tringale has made every cut since then while registering an 18th place finish at the Farmers Insurance Open, 17th at the Waste Management Phoenix Open and 7th at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am.
Rated No. 25 in the Dunkel Index, we’ll take Tringale (-250) to still be playing on Sunday at Bay Hill.
Keep up with your latest golf news coverage and betting pick previews at The Dunkel Index.
