2022 Valspar Championship Betting Preview/Prop Picks
16 March 2022
PGA Tour golfers remain in Florida for another competitive event on the calendar. The Valdosta Championship takes place in Palm Harbor, which is home to the Copperhead Course.
Out of the top 50, there will be 20 golfers that fall within that rank that will be competing. Below you can see which make the cut and have a shot at winning.
Tournament Details
Date: Mar 17–20, 2022
Course: Copperhead Course
Watch on: GOLF, NBC
Purse: $7,800,000
Betting Overview
The Valspar Championship is an event that typically has a good field but not the strongest out there. The course demands respect and requires players to strike efficiently off of the tee.
Compared to most events, you do not have to be a great putter to win here. Furthermore, strokes gained tee to green is arguably the best measurement for this event compared to any other.
Head to Head Matchup to Watch
Viktor Hovland (-25.326) and Sam Burns (-26.257) are two of the most attractive picks to win this event. Hovland has been shaky this season and not completely great off of iron play.
As for Burns, he is the returning champ for this event. In most cases, Hovland would likely win outright, but Burns loves this event and has a great shot to repeat.
Dunkel Index For This Event
The Dunkel Index is showing these top 10 golfers that could win this event. The following ten are:
1 Viktor Hovland -25.326
2 Sam Burns -26.257
3 Tyrrell Hatton -26.320
4 Matthew Fitzpatrick -26.437
5 Collin Morikawa -27.871
6 Justin Thomas -28.036
7 Jason Kokrak -28.256
8 Kevin Kisner -30.460
9 Dustin Johnson -31.015
10 Louis Oosthuizen -31.639
*index is subject to changes
Golfers That Could Win
Viktor Hovland (-25.326) is coming off a tie for ninth place at the Players Championship. As the third-best golfer in the world, he has seen many opportunities this season pass him by while he struggles in iron play.
Interestingly enough, he leads the field in strokes gained per round at this event with 3.15. He came in third here last year and has a shot to do even better if he can land precise iron shots.
Louis Oosthuizen (-31.639) finished tied for eighth at this event last season. His recent performance was a T42 at the Players, which was not the finish he was hoping for. As the 13th best golfer in the world, this could be an event to allow him to shine.
Dustin Johnson (-31.015) is coming off of a tie for ninth place at the Players, too, just like Hovland. He has had many ups and downs this season and not really looking like the ninth-best golfer in the world. He has an opportunity to get back on track.
Potential Winning Pick
Sam Burns (-26.257) makes one of the best betting arguments to win this event. The returning champion has the second-best strokes gained per round with 2.30 over 12 rounds. If he remains consistent each day, he has an opportunity to repeat.
Prop Picks
Tournament Matchup: Abraham Ancer (-130) OVER Keegan Bradley
Ancer comes in having made four cuts in a row and has had success at the Valspar with tie for 16th and a 5th in his two appearances.
Bradley finished in a tie for 9th at THE PLAYERS Championship and it could have been even better but for a two-stroke penalty he was assessed earlier in the week. His average finishing position in the last four appearances at the Valspar is 30th.
With Ancer rated No. 19 in this week’s Dunkel Index and Bradley at No. 24, take the pro from Mexico (-130) to continue his steady play and finish ahead of Bradley in this matchup.
Tournament Matchup: Sam Burns (+100) OVER Dustin Johnson
After knocking on the door a number of times, Burns broke through with his first PGA title at last year’s Valspar. After missing the cut in three straight tournaments, he’s started to pick it up with at tie for 9th at the Arnold Palmer and tie for 26th at THE PLAYERS Championship.
Johnson put together a final-round 63 to finish 9th at THE PLAYERS, but has played infrequently so far this year and finished outside with Top 20 in the other three events, including missing the cut at the Genesis Invitational.
With Burns rated No. 2 in this week’s Dunkel Index and Johnson at No. 9, take the defending champion at plus money (+100) to have the edge in this matchup.
Tournament Matchup: Tyrrell Hatton (+100) OVER Matt Fitzpatrick
Hatton is in the midst of a hot stretch that has seen him finish in the Top 15 in three straight tournaments, including a tie for 13th at the THE PLAYERS Championship.
Fitzpatrick had been just as hot with four straight Top 15 finishes, but stumbled last week under tough conditions as he missed the cut at THE PLAYERS.
With Hatton rated No. 3 in this week’s Dunkel Index and Fitzpatrick at No. 4, these two Englishmen should be battling atop the leaderboard all weekend long, but take Hatton at plus money (+100) to edge out Fitzpatrick in the end.
Tournament Matchup: Jason Kokrak (+110) OVER Shane Lowry
Kokrak has been steady if unspectacular of late with a pair of ties for 26th followed by a tie for 53rd at THE PLAYERS. But he’s had a history of success at the Valspar with five Top 15 finishes in his last seven appearances.
Lowry had one of the highlights at THE PLAYERS with his hole-in-one at the 17th on Sunday, while finishing in a tie for 11th. This is just his second trip to Innisbrook Resort (Copperhead) after finishing in a tie for 49th in 2018.
With Kokrak rated No. 7 in this week’s Dunkel Index and Lowry No. 11, take Kokrak (+110) at plus money to use his experience at the Valspar to get the better of Lowry.
Check out the latest sports team rankings & power ratings!
