2021 YellaWood 500 Betting Preview/Prop Play

02 October 2021

The Round of 12 makes its way to Talladega for the upcoming race in the NASCAR playoffs. The races are becoming fierce, with every lap being more important than the previous one.

Some favorites are coming into this one red hot, especially Denny Hamlin. However, this race will be pivotal for some drivers that need this race to stay alive or to gain momentum.

Race Details

Date: Sun, Oct 3, 1:00 PM
Watch on: NBC
Track: Talladega Superspeedway

Betting Overview

Last week’s Las Vegas race had an excellent finish. Hamlin was able to take the lead over Elliot with only 39 laps left.

Many drivers will be solid bets and exciting to watch, but that does not typically win. For this specific event, looking at ones that have competed well at Talladega could be a good start.

Head to Head Matchup to Watch

Chase Elliott (152.681) and Kevin Harvick (155.490) are a great pair to see succeed. Elliot has had some success, while Harvick normally shows up later in the event.

Elliot only has one top 10 finish out of five recent fall races in Talladega. For Harvick, he has two consecutive top-five finishes for the Daytona 500, which makes him a great candidate here.

Dunkel Index For This Event

The Dunkel Index is showing these top 10 drivers that could win this event. The following ten are:

1    Denny Hamlin 147.361                                                                                                                            
2    Martin Truex Jr 149.707                                                                                                                            
3    Kyle Larson    151.661                                                                                                                            
4    Ryan Blaney    152.244                                                                                                                            
5    William Byron    152.447                                                                                                                            
6    Chase Elliott    152.681                                                                                                                            
7    Joey Logano    153.193                                                                                                                            
8    Kevin Harvick    155.490                                                                                                                            
9    Tyler Reddick    157.443                                                                                    
10    Kyle Busch    158.171

*index is subject to changes

Drivers That Could Win

Kyle Larson (151.661) has been one of the best drivers all season and is a favorite to win the playoffs. But, he has not finished in the top 10 ever at Talladega and has his last three performances being 39th, 40th, and 40th.

Joey Logano (153.193) has won the fall race back in 2015 and 2016. Since then, he has had some solid performances but has not won again. However, he has four top-five finishes out of his last eight Talladega starts.

Kevin Harvick (155.490) is somewhat sneaky here. As mentioned above, he typically performs better towards the end of the race rather than the start. With this in mind, he could be a volatile pick but should still be worth taking a look at.

Potential Winning Pick

Denny Hamlin (147.361) is an excellent choice here for his previous success. However, past success does not mean a guaranteed victory, but at least you can see where his performances have turned out.

He won the fall race here last year, placed fourth in the spring, and was third in the fall race back in 2019. In addition, he has won three out of the last six Daytona 500 races making him an interesting pick.

Prop Play

Top 10 Finish: Joey Logano (-200)

Logano has never been eliminated from the playoffs before the Round of 8, but is precariously hovering above the cutline heading to Talladega.

With just a six-point margin, Logano needs a good performance on Sunday. He’s been solid if unspectacular in the playoff races to date, finishing between 5th and 11th in each race.

His luck this year at superspeedway races has not been all that good with a crash and flat tire taking him out of contention at Daytona and an airborne crash resulting from a clip by Denny Hamlin ending his day earlier this year at Talladega.

But Logano knows how to win at Talladega, capturing the checkered flag three times between 2015 and 2018. He enjoyed one stretch of races between 2017 and 2019 where he finished no worse that 5th.

Rated No. 7 in this week's Dunkel Index, we’ll take Logano (-200) to have a good day on Sunday and finish in the Top 10.

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