2021 YellaWood 500 Betting Preview/Prop Play
02 October 2021
The Round of 12 makes its way to Talladega for the upcoming race in the NASCAR playoffs. The races are becoming fierce, with every lap being more important than the previous one.
Some favorites are coming into this one red hot, especially Denny Hamlin. However, this race will be pivotal for some drivers that need this race to stay alive or to gain momentum.
Race Details
Date: Sun, Oct 3, 1:00 PM
Watch on: NBC
Track: Talladega Superspeedway
Betting Overview
Last week’s Las Vegas race had an excellent finish. Hamlin was able to take the lead over Elliot with only 39 laps left.
Many drivers will be solid bets and exciting to watch, but that does not typically win. For this specific event, looking at ones that have competed well at Talladega could be a good start.
Head to Head Matchup to Watch
Chase Elliott (152.681) and Kevin Harvick (155.490) are a great pair to see succeed. Elliot has had some success, while Harvick normally shows up later in the event.
Elliot only has one top 10 finish out of five recent fall races in Talladega. For Harvick, he has two consecutive top-five finishes for the Daytona 500, which makes him a great candidate here.
Dunkel Index For This Event
The Dunkel Index is showing these top 10 drivers that could win this event. The following ten are:
1 Denny Hamlin 147.361
2 Martin Truex Jr 149.707
3 Kyle Larson 151.661
4 Ryan Blaney 152.244
5 William Byron 152.447
6 Chase Elliott 152.681
7 Joey Logano 153.193
8 Kevin Harvick 155.490
9 Tyler Reddick 157.443
10 Kyle Busch 158.171
*index is subject to changes
Drivers That Could Win
Kyle Larson (151.661) has been one of the best drivers all season and is a favorite to win the playoffs. But, he has not finished in the top 10 ever at Talladega and has his last three performances being 39th, 40th, and 40th.
Joey Logano (153.193) has won the fall race back in 2015 and 2016. Since then, he has had some solid performances but has not won again. However, he has four top-five finishes out of his last eight Talladega starts.
Kevin Harvick (155.490) is somewhat sneaky here. As mentioned above, he typically performs better towards the end of the race rather than the start. With this in mind, he could be a volatile pick but should still be worth taking a look at.
Potential Winning Pick
Denny Hamlin (147.361) is an excellent choice here for his previous success. However, past success does not mean a guaranteed victory, but at least you can see where his performances have turned out.
He won the fall race here last year, placed fourth in the spring, and was third in the fall race back in 2019. In addition, he has won three out of the last six Daytona 500 races making him an interesting pick.
Prop Play
Top 10 Finish: Joey Logano (-200)
Logano has never been eliminated from the playoffs before the Round of 8, but is precariously hovering above the cutline heading to Talladega.
With just a six-point margin, Logano needs a good performance on Sunday. He’s been solid if unspectacular in the playoff races to date, finishing between 5th and 11th in each race.
His luck this year at superspeedway races has not been all that good with a crash and flat tire taking him out of contention at Daytona and an airborne crash resulting from a clip by Denny Hamlin ending his day earlier this year at Talladega.
But Logano knows how to win at Talladega, capturing the checkered flag three times between 2015 and 2018. He enjoyed one stretch of races between 2017 and 2019 where he finished no worse that 5th.
Rated No. 7 in this week's Dunkel Index, we’ll take Logano (-200) to have a good day on Sunday and finish in the Top 10.
Keep up with your latest NASCAR news coverage and betting pick previews at The Dunkel Index.
