2021 Xfinity 500 Betting Preview/Prop Play

30 October 2021

The next critical race is upon us racing fans, as the Championship 4 will be the next cut after this race. Many drivers are predicted to come out ahead, but the usual favorites are still making the strongest cases.

Martinsville, Virginia, will be hosting this event at the Martinsville Speedway. This track has some positive history for a handful of drivers, but will they succeed again?

Race Details

Date: Sun, Oct 31, 2:00 PM
Watch on: NBC
Track: Martinsville Speedway, Virginia

Betting Overview

Motivations from each driver will vary across the field. Some that are not in contention to win the Cup Series probably will not be as tuned into the race as the top eight.

This will be the final race of the three-race trio, which features another short track of 0.526 miles per lap on the tri-oval. Drivers that have benefited from short tracks this year will arguably have another great opportunity ahead of them.

Head to Head Matchup to Watch

Kyle Larson (152.344) and Martin Truex Jr (161.719) make for an epic battle. Truex has been dominant here, and it looks like he could pull off another win.

He has won the last three out of four races in Martinsville. The last one that he did not win, he still led by 129 laps in. Larson, on the other hand, only has one top-five finish, despite his recent dominance, so this is a no-brainer here to check out Truex Jr.

Dunkel Index For This Event 

The Dunkel Index is showing these top 10 drivers that could win this event. The following ten are:

1    Kyle Larson    152.344                                                                                                                            
2    Denny Hamlin    153.722                                                                                                                            
3    Chase Elliott    155.977                                                                                                                            
4    Christopher Bell    160.434                                                                                                                            
5    Tyler Reddick    160.526                                                                                                                            
6    Ryan Blaney    160.852                                                                                                                            
7    Kurt Busch    161.439                                                                                                                            
8    Kevin Harvick    161.505                                                                                                                            
9    William Byron    161.641                                                                                                                            
10    Martin Truex Jr    161.719

*index is subject to changes

Drivers That Could Win

Chase Elliott (155.977) took home last year's fall race and was fifth in the spring race last season. In addition, he came second at this year's spring race to mark four top-five finishes total in five tries. 

Denny Hamlin (153.722) has hovered around the top spots racing here. He has landed four top-five finishes in his last six races in Martinsville. When looking at short tracks overall this season, he has not finished worse than 10th in any.

It would not hurt to throw some money towards Christopher Bell (160.434) as your long-shot pick here. He has three top-eight finishes, with two of them being top five. His most recent spring race has him placing seventh, so he is definitely worth a shot.

Potential Winning Pick

Martin Truex Jr. (161.719) offers some of the best momentum and history to perform well here. Even though he is just outside the top four, he can still disrupt the current Cup Series chase with a victory.

Prop Play

Top 5 Finish: Chase Elliott (-135)

Heading into the final race of the Round of 8, Elliott is at least in the enviable position of controlling his own destiny to advance to the Championship 4 round.

The defending Cup series champion needs only 20 points on Sunday to move on to the next round. That seems like a pretty low bar given Elliott’s recent history at Martinsville.

The 25-year-old has finished in the top five in four of the last five races there and picked up a victory in last year’s playoffs on his way to the Cup championship.

Rated No. 3 in this week’s Dunkel Index, we’ll take Elliott (-135) to leave nothing to chance and finish in the Top 5 again this weekend.

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