2021 PGA Championship Betting Preview/Prop Bets
17 May 2021
The 2021 PGA Championship will send golfers to the beautiful Kiawah Island Golf Resort Ocean Course in South Carolina. Collin Morikawa looks to repeat but will have to play better than the other 155 players competing for this event.
Tournament Details
Date: May 20–23, 2021
Course: Ocean Course
Watch on: CBS, ESPN
Purse:$11,000,000
Betting Overview
This course is one of the longest for any major PGA event. Kiawah Island is a par 72, but the total yards show up on the scorecard is at 7,876 yards and makes it the longest major course in history.
This course also happens to be quite beautiful. However, golfers will need to make sure they avoid bad shots because this course will punish them dearly.
Head to Head Matchup to Watch
Collin Morikawa (-19.774) and Webb Simpson (-20.380) make interesting bets to make as these two go head to head. Morikawa is the defending champ for this event and will attempt a repeat here since the last two that did it were Tiger Woods and Brooks Koepka.
Simpson will look to improve on his ninth world ranking spot and provides an interesting value play for a golfer that many are overlooking. After placing T12 at the Masters, he has a top 10 finish and could bring that momentum coming into this one.
Dunkel Index For This Event
The Dunkel Index is showing these top 10 golfers that could win this event. The following 10 are:
1 Jordan Spieth -15.218
2 Rory McIlroy -18.156
3 Stewart Cink -18.992
4 Sam Burns -19.124
5 Collin Morikawa -19.774
6 Charley Hoffman -20.053
7 Cameron Smith -20.203
8 Webb Simpson -20.380
9 Matt Jones -20.476
10 Xander Schauffele -20.828
*index is subject to changes
Golfers That Could Win
Another high quality value pick would be Sam Burns (-19.124), especially with his three most recent events. He picked up a win at the Valspar Championship, placed second at the AT&T Byron Nelson, and a T4 placing for another event.
Jordan Spieth (-15.218) has been playing some very competitive golf since the start of the year. In fact, this will mark his fifth attempt at trying to secure a grand slam, and he has a very good shot at claiming it here.
Potential Winning Pick
Rory McIlroy (-18.156), the current seventh world ranked golfer, has some history at this event. Not only just playing at this course, but actually winning this tournament back in 2012.
He won this event by eight strokes then, and of course, he will be competing against different golfers now. But this course suits him well, and he has the experience that many bettors are looking for when playing here.
Mcllroy also won this event back in 2014, so he will be playing for a third championship. However, that event was played at the Valhalla Golf Course, located just outside of Louisville, Kentucky.
Prop Bets
Top 10 Finish: Sam Burns (+500)
The 24-year-old Louisiana native has been no stranger to the leaderboards this season. He held the 36-hold lead at the Houston Open and 54-hole lead at the Genesis Invitational before finally breaking through with his first Tour victory at the Valspar Championship two weeks ago.
Burns almost became the first player since Camilo Villegas in 2008 to pick up his first two career victories in consecutive weeks after he held the 54-hole lead at last week’s AT&T Byron Nelson. He ended up finishing 2nd three shots behind KH Lee.
On the season, he has finished in the Top 10 in 6 of the 17 events he’s entered with a scoring average of 70.295(ranked No. 25). Rated No. 4 in the Dunkel Index, we’ll take Burns (+500) to keep the hot streak going at Kiawah and finish in the Top 10.
Top 20 Finish: Daniel Berger (+138)
Berger had one of the more dramatic wins of the season when he sank a 30-foot eagle putt on the 72nd hole to win the AT&T Pebble Beach by two shots over Maverick McNealy. It was the 4th Tour win for the 28-year-old out of FSU.
He followed that up with a disappointing performance at the Masters as he failed to make the cut. But Berger has certainly had his fair share of strong performances in the majors. He was tied for the lead entering the final round of the 2018 U.S. Open after trailing Dustin Johnson by 11 shots at the beginning of the day. He ended up finishing in a tie for 6th.
Like Burns, Berger also comes into the PGA following a strong performance in the AT&T Byron Nelson. He finished 4th in greens hit in regulation (81%), which helped him shoot a final round 64 to finish in a tie for 3rd.
Accuracy has been a strong point all season long as he ranks 10th in greens in regulation percentage (70.95). Rated No. 18 in the Dunkel Index, we like his pinpoint control to help him on the Ocean Course this week and will take Berger (+138) to finish in the Top 20.
Make Cut: Charl Schwartzel (-162)
The former Masters winner continued to enjoy a bounce back season with a tie for 3rd at the AT&T Byron Nelson. Schwartzel has now made seven straight cuts and finished in the Top 25 in the last four events.
The 36-year-old South African has shown decent length off the tee (No. 46 at 302.5), but his accuracy has been a struggle (No. 145 at 57.19%). This could hurt him in the extreme conditions on the Ocean Course.
But we like the way Schwartzel’s game is trending right now. He has also made the cut in the last 6 PGA Championships he’s entered. Rated No. 53 in the Dunkel Index, we’ll take Schwartzel (-162) to make it 7 straight cuts at the PGA.
Keep up with your latest PGA news coverage and betting pick previews at The Dunkel Index.
