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2021 BMW Championship Betting Preview/Prop Plays

25 August 2021

The next round of golfing action will take place in Baltimore, Maryland, as the PGA will showcase the BMW Championship. This event has many twists and turns as to who could win here, with tons of quality talent across the board.

Many golfers have played well here, but they will need to play their best with the amount of players wanting to shine. Below you will see the current outlook for the event.

Tournament Details

Date: Aug 26–29, 2021
Course: Caves Valley Golf Club
Watch on: NBC, GOLF
Purse: $9,500,000

Betting Overview

Jon Rahm won this event last year, but it was at a different course. The event was hosted at Olympia Fields Country Club, which obviously is a different course.

Players will need to make sure they have their most trusted putter with them to cap off birdies. In addition, great iron play is another quality to have when approaching the green.

Head to Head Matchup to Watch

Jon Rahm (-20.044) and Tony Finau (-25.244) make a great duo to keep an eye on. Rahm is leading the top of the world rankings while Finau is now sitting at ninth.

Finau's recent win, which was surprising to many, propelled him up a spot in the rankings. For Rahm, he has almost the entire top 10 ranked golfers to compete against, so all eyes will be on him to perform.

Dunkel Index For This Event

The Dunkel Index is showing these top 10 golfers that could win this event. The following ten are:

1    Jon Rahm    -20.044
2    Tony Finau    -25.244
3    Collin Morikawa    -26.120
4    Abraham Ancer    -26.353
5    Cameron Smith    -26.497
6    Louis Oosthuizen    -26.651
7    Harris English    -27.281
8    Jordan Spieth    -28.833
9    Sam Burns    -29.325
10    Daniel Berger    -29.974

*index is subject to changes

Golfers That Could Win

Sam Burns (-29.325) is a huge value play here that could surprise many. With the hot start he had to the season, you could argue that he could do the same again.

Burns is averaging 0.67 strokes gained approach, and 0.52 strokes gained putting. In addition, he has solid iron play to cap everything off for an underdog victory.

Bryson DeChambeau (-31.493) started the season off hot but quickly trailed off. For example, he has had three top 10 finishes in his last 13 events.

DeChambeau is still dangerous to the field with his ability to long bomb shots and with his improved putting. Still, you never know which version of him will show up.

Potential Winning Pick

Louis Oosthuizen (-26.651) is the seventh-ranked golfer in the world, and he has not won this year. However, he has had plenty of top-quality finishes that could have gone his way.

Oosthuizen finished second at the US Open, the second at the PGA Championship, and the third at the Open Championship. He has a great opportunity to close this event out strong.

Prop Plays

Top 10 Finish: Cameron Smith (+200)

Smith came close to picking up his fourth win on the Tour at The Northern Trust before losing in a playoff to Tony Finau. Still, it was a great week for the 28-year-old Australian that included a round of 60 on Saturday.

His effort at Liberty National followed a tie for fifth at the St. Jude and 10th at the Olympics, making it three straight Top 10 finishes in his last three appearances.

He’s been fantastic all season around the greens and comes into this week’s field ranked No. 1 in birdie average (4.50) and sand save percentage (65.35%).

Rated No. 5 in this week’s Dunkel Index, we’ll stick with Smith (+200) again this week for another Top 10 finish.

Top 20 Finish: Patrick Cantlay (-150)

Cantlay had a another strong tournament at the Northern Trust with a tie for 11th that included four straight rounds under 70. Combined, he’s now broken 70 in the last seven rounds he’s played.

That consistency has served the 29-year-old out of UCLA well all season. With the exception of missing the cut at The Open Championship, Cantlay has finished in the Top 25 in all six tournaments he’s entered. That includes winning the Memorial back in June.

Rated No. 13 in this week’s Dunkel Index, we like Cantlay (-150) to stay in contention at Caves Valley and pick up another Top 20 finish.

Top 30 Finish: Shane Lowry (-135)

Lowry is hoping to make his first Ryder Cup team and helped himself with an 11th-place finish at the Northern Trust that included a 62 on Saturday.

The former Open Champion has been at this best in star-studded fields with a 12th at this year’s Open Championship, a sixth at the Memorial and fourth at the PGA Championship.

Rated No. 16 in this week’s Dunkel Index, we’ll ride along as Lowry (-135) pursues his Ryder Cup dream and picks up a Top 30 finish.

Top 40 Finish: Kevin Na (-200)

Na is known for his deft touch around the greens and he delivered again at Liberty National as he led the field with over eight strokes gained around the green en route to a tie for eighth.

The 37-year-old South Korean is finishing strong with four straight Top 25 finishes that includes a pair of second-place finishes at the John Deere Classic and Wyndham Championship. He also picked up his fifth Tour title at the Sony Open back in January.

Rated No. 20 in this week’s Dunkel Index, we’ll give the nod to Na (-200) for another strong effort at Caves Valley and a Top 40 finish.

Stay tuned for more sports betting previews, and make sure to also check out today's sports betting picks!

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