Lynx vs. Mercury: Betting Trends, Odds, Records Against the Spread, Predictions - July 16

The Phoenix Mercury (15-6) will turn to Satou Sabally (sixth in WNBA, 19.1 points per game) to help beat Napheesa Collier (first in league, 23.9) and the Minnesota Lynx (19-4) on Wednesday, July 16, 2025 at Target Center, at 1 p.m. ET on FDSN, AZFamily, and Merc+.

Last time out, Minnesota picked up a 91-78 victory against Chicago. The Lynx were led by Collier, who finished with 29 points, five assists and three steals, while Courtney Williams added 18 points, eight rebounds, seven assists, four steals and two blocks.

Phoenix won on the road over Golden State 78-77 last time out, and were led by DeWanna Bonner (22 PTS, 11 REB, 87.5 FG%, 3-4 from 3PT) and Alyssa Thomas (17 PTS, 11 AST, 2 BLK, 50 FG%).

Bet now!

Lynx vs. Mercury Betting Lines

Take a peek below at the most up-to-date betting lines for the Lynx-Mercury game.

• Favorite: Lynx (-11)
• Total: 159
• Lynx Moneyline: -592
• Mercury Moneyline: +410

Pick with the best in the business! Get free picks for every game, every week at the Dunkel Index.

Lynx Betting Insights

• The Lynx have an 85.5% chance to win this matchup based on the moneyline's implied probability.
• Minnesota has been favored on the moneyline 23 times this season. They've finished 19-4 in those games.
• The Lynx have won 13 games against the spread this season, while failing to cover 10 times.
• Minnesota's 23 games this season have gone over this contest's total of 159 points 13 times.
• The average point total in Lynx outings this year is 159.9, 0.9 more than this matchup's over/under.

Mercury Betting Insights

• The implied probability of a win by the Mercury based on the moneyline is 19.6%.
• This season, Phoenix has been the underdog nine times and won five of those games.
• The Mercury are 13-8-0 ATS this season.
• Phoenix's games this season have had a combined scoring total higher than 159 points in 12 of 21 outings.
• The Mercury have a 161.3-point average over/under in their outings this season, 2.3 more points than this game's total.

Key Stats for Lynx vs. Mercury

• The 84.9 points per game Minnesota scores are 5.6 more points than Phoenix allows (79.3).
• The Lynx have a 16-2 record when putting up more than 79.3 points.
• Minnesota's offense has been much better in home games (86 PPG) compared to its play on the road (83.9 PPG). Similarly, its defense has been much better in home games (71.2 PPG allowed) when compared to away games (79.2 PPG allowed).
• Phoenix averages 8.9 more points per game (84.2) than Minnesota allow its opponents to score (75.3).
• When they score more than 75.3 points, the Mercury are 14-3.
• Phoenix averages 85.6 points per game at home, 3.2 more than away (82.4). Defensively, it allows 77.8 per game, 3.5 fewer points than away (81.3).

All Media on this page by Associated Press.