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2021 Valspar Championship Betting Preview/Prop Bets

Golf Previews

The PGA returns back to standard play after the Zurich Classic in New Orleans. This next event is at the Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort and Golf Club, which is a demanding but strong course to play.

Tournament Details
Date: Apr 29–May 2, 2021
Course: Copperhead Course
Watch on: CBS, GOLF
Purse: $6,900,000

Betting Overview

Ball striking needs to be an emphasis at this course. Looking at holes 15-17, these are regarded as ‘the snake pit,’ as they provide one of the most demanding challenges even for the world’s top golfers.

The PGA Tour is not shy to make this golf quite tough for the players, as it reached the third toughest in 2019 play. Also, do not expect one or two golfers to completely run away with this event.

This will be a very close championship battle, as 11 out of the last 13 champions have won by only a single shot or by a playoff. The only time it did not happen was two instances happened to be two-shot victories.

Head to Head Matchup to Watch

Justin Thomas (-16.746) and Dustin Johnson (-21.745) are both compelling options to watch here. They are both highly ranked, coming into a competitive field where mistakes will be punished on the course.

Dunkel Index For This Event

The Dunkel Index is showing these top 10 golfers that could win this event. The following ten are:

  1. Justin Thomas - 16.746
  2. Charley Hoffman - 17.464
  3. Patrick Reed - 18.329
  4. Max Homa - 18.630
  5. Talor Gooch - 19.881
  6. Justin Rose - 20.083
  7. Joaquin Niemann - 20.101
  8. Bubba Watson - 20.190
  9. Janes Hahn - 20.247
  10. Emiliano Grillo - 20.256

*index is subject to changes 

Golfers That Could Win 

Corey Conner (-20.985) has improved a lot this year and seems to be one step behind when he finishes out events to claim victory. The only downfall appears to be his putting, which could start dropping for him any day now. 

Justin Thomas (-16.746) is a top favorite to win this event, especially being ranked as the second-best golfer in the world. Being this highly ranked is no accident, as he consistently plays at a high level with solid ball striking, accuracy, and on target putts.

Potential Winning Pick 

Seeing Paul Casey (-23.943) win a consecutive Valspar Championship for two years in a row shows that he can handle this course. With -9 and -10 scores respectively in 2018 and 2019 is a great score to have here.

In his 2018 victory, he claimed a close victory on the last day after stumbling a bit. But in 2019, he closed the day out strong with a -6 score to keep him in the lead as he watched the remaining players from the locker room finish out.

With his recent performances over the years, why not make it a third time in a row? He loves it here and has shown to be consistent.

Prop Bets

Top 10 Finish: Justin Rose (+300)

Rose returns to the Innisbrook Resort (Copperhead) course for the first time since posting his best finish (5th) in the event in 2018.

After withdrawing from the Arnold Palmer in March because of injury, the 40-year-old Tour veteran showed he was back in fine form with his 7th-place finish at the Masters that included an opening-round 65.

That score reflects Rose’s ability to get under-par in a hurry as he ranks 15th in birdie average (4.40) and 8th in eagles.

Rated No. 6 in the Dunkel Index, we’ll take Rose (+300) to keep the low scores going and finish in the Top 10 this weekend.

Top 20 Finish: Emiliano Grillo (+188)

Grillo has not played the Valspar since missing the cut in 2015.

But the 28-year-old Argentinian looks to be playing much better golf this time around. He followed up a 6th-place finish at the Corales Puntacana Championship with a 2nd at the RBC Heritage that saw him break 70 all four rounds.

Accuracy has been the name of his game this year as he comes in ranked 2nd in greens in regulation percentage (73.18).

Rated No. 10 in the Dunkel Index, Grillo (+188) looks like a good bet to finish in the Top 20.

Top 20 Finish: Corey Conners (-120)

One of the hottest golfers on the planet, Conners has finished in the Top 20 in each of his last 5 tournaments.

That includes a 3rd at the Arnold Palmer, 8th at the Masters and 4th at the RBC Heritage.

The 29-year-old Canadian has been highly accurate from tee to green. He ranks 10th in driving accuracy percentage (70.0) and 6th in greens in regulation percentage (71.77). This should serve him well by staying out of the Valspar’s notorious rough as it did in 2018 when he finished 16th in the tournament.

Rated No. 17 in the Dunkel Index, we will take Conners to keep his hot streak going and finish in the Top 20.

Top 30 Finish: Cam Tringale (+120)

Tringale looked to be in position for his first PGA Tour win when he led at the midway point of the Texas Open.

A disappointing 73 on Saturday and 72 on Sunday dropped him to 9th, but it has not dampened what has been a solid year with 7 Top 25 finishes in his 16 starts.

The 33-year-old out of Georgia Tech comes in ranked 14th in scoring average (70.119).

Rated No. 14 in the Dunkel Index, we like Tringale (+120) to continue to stay in contention this week and finish in the Top 30.

Top 40 Finish: Erik van Rooyen (+138)

van Rooyen was a surprise late partner with Wyndham Clark last week at the Zurich Classic and the two turned out to mesh well with a tie for 17th.

It’s been part of a solid stretch for the 31-year-old South African as he’s made 6 straight cuts, including a 14th-place finish at the Texas Open and a tie for 9th at the Dell Match Play.

Rated No. 16 in the Dunkel Index, we like the safer play of taking van Rooyen (+138) to finish in the Top 40.

Keep up with your latest PGA news coverage and betting pick previews at The Dunkel Index.

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