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2021 Masters Betting Preview/Prop Bets

Golf Previews

The Masters is golf’s most prestigious event, and it falls on the usual rotation on the PGA Tour schedule on April 8-11 at Augusta National Golf Club in Augusta, Ga. The Masters will feature a star-studded field, and golfers will look to challenge the returning champion in Dustin Johnson for the second time in the last five months.

 

Betting Overview 

Some key stats to look at for the Masters will be the usual:

  • Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee
  • SG: Approach
  • SG: Around-the-Green
  • Par 5 Scoring
  • Par 4 Efficiency within the 450-500 yard range
  • Scrambling
  • Avoiding bogeys
  • Golfers that can finish in one or two putts

Golfers must take advantage of the par 5’s and long par 4’s to best improve their scoring. This means golfers will need to drive well, as the challenging second cuts can cause headaches and bogeys alike.

Traditionally, those who do well at the Masters rely on previous experience to set themselves up for success. Course knowledge will be critical, as this is the most important event on the PGA Tour.

Head-to-Head Matchup to Watch 

Jordan Spieth (-10.046) and Brooks Koepka (-12.676) are at two opposite ends of their careers right now. Last year, it appeared that Koepka could take on anyone, but he will be interesting to watch as he tries to get back on top. 

Spieth has been able to move back up to the 38th spot in the world rankings. Previously, he was nearing mid-50’s so this is a much better improvement. 

Dunkel Index For The Masters

The Dunkel Index is showing these top 10 golfers that could win the Masters. The following 10 are:

1. Jordan Spieth -10.046
2. Brooks Koepka -12.676
3. Bryson DeChambeau -14.142
4. Justin Thomas -14.212
5. Billy Horschel -15.034
6. Matthew Fitzpatrick -15.276
7. Max Homa -15.491
8. Matt Jones -15.533
9. Daniel Berger -15.937
10. Collin Morikawa -15.983

*index is subject to changes 

Golfers That Could Win 

Justin Thomas (-14.212) and Bryson DeChambeau (-14.142) are both excellent options to look at for the Masters. Thomas comes in with the second-best world golf ranking and finished fourth last year at the Masters. 

DeChambeau finished 34th last year, but this season has proved to be much better for him. In just five short months from the previous Masters, he has tremendously changed for the better and could be a valuable pick here. 

Potential Winning Pick 

Dustin Johnson (-16.326)

Johnson returns as the best golfer in the world rankings and will be looking to repeat after winning his first career Masters in the fall. Not only did he win, but he put up a record performance of 20-under par.

He is the betting market favorite, but there are other golfers with an excellent chance to beat him. For example, the Dunkel index shows that Johnson does not even crack the top 10 at the best chances at winning. 

However, he is returning to the Masters after five months. This puts him back into contention after recently playing here. 

Prop Bets

Top 10 Finish: Matthew Fitzpatrick (+350)

Statistically, Fitzpatrick is having a solid year. He ranks 39th in driving accuracy, 33rd in birdie average and 35th in scoring average at 70.473.

Those statistics have translated into results as well for the 26-year-old Englishman. In the 10 PGA events he’s entered this year, he’s finished in the Top 25 in 6 of them and in the Top 10 in 3. His last 5 tournaments have seen him finish 5th, 11th, 10th, 9th and 18th.

Fitzpatrick has made the cut in 5 of the 6 Masters he’s played in with his best finish coming in 2016 (tied for 7th).

Rated No. 6 in the Dunkel Index, we’ll take Fitzpatrick (+350) to add another Top 10 finish at Augusta to his resume.

Top 10 Finish: Max Homa (+650)

It’s already been a year to remember for Homa, who picked up his second PGA Tour victory by beating Tony Finau in a playoff to take the Genesis Invitational back in February.

The 30-year-old out of Cal followed that up with solid performances at the WGC-Workday Championship (22nd) and Arnold Palmer Invitational (10th) before pulling off one of the biggest upsets at the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play by beating fellow Cal alum Collin Morikawa on the second day, 2 & 1.

Homa has the distance (42nd in driving distance) and scrambling ability (31st in sand save percentage) to stay in contention.

Rated No. 7 in the Dunkel Index, Homa (+650) at this price is worth a look to finish in the Top 10.

Top 20 Finish: Will Zalatoris (+200)

Zalatoris was not even assured a position in this year’s field until a solid performance at the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play bumped him up to 45th in the world and earned him an invitation.

This won’t be his first major however, as the 24-year-old out of Wake Forest finished an impressive 6th at last year’s US Open at Winged Foot.

He’s carried that over into this season with 10 Top 25 and 5 Top 10 finishes, including a 7th at Farmers Insurance and 10th at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Statistically, Zalatoris ranks 18th in driving distance. 27th in greens in regulation and 12th in scoring average at 70.020.

Rated No. 17 in the Dunkel Index, Zalatoris (+200) is a good bet to make his first Masters a memorable one with a Top 20 finish.

Top 20 Finish: Brian Harman (+333)

Like Zalatoris, Harman wasn’t assured of a spot in the Masters Field until after the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play.

Heading into the tournament, the 2-time Tour winner was sitting 59th in the world and at the outside. But wins over Patrick Cantlay and Bubba Watson got him to the quarterfinals and boosted his world ranking to just inside the required No. 50.

It’s a big moment for a player who was born in Georgia and went to the University of Georgia. He’s made two other appearances in the Masters, missing the cut and finishing 44th.

But the 34-year-old is playing some of his best golf right now. On top of his match play performance, he finished 8th at the American Express and 3rd at The Players Championship.

Rated No. 15 in the Dunkel Index, Harman (+333) is a solid pick to finish in the Top 20 this year.

To Make The Cut: Brendon Todd (-137)

Todd knows the ups and downs of being a Tour golfer. In fact, he experienced both at this year’s Players Championship. On the one hand, he badly shanked an iron into the water with all eyes watching on the signature 17th. But he also picked up his first career hole-in-one on the 213-yard No. 8.

Overall, there are few golfers steadier than Todd, who ranks No. 1 in driving accuracy and has made the cut in 9 of his last 10 tournaments.

The 3-time Tour winner has missed the cut in his previous two Masters (2015, 2020), but with a Dunkel rating of No. 39, we think Todd (-137) has a good shot to still be playing on Sunday.

Be sure to check out all of The Dunkel Index's daily picks.

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