2021 Geico 500 Betting Preview/Prop Bet

NASCAR Previews

The next race for the NASCAR Cup Series takes place in Alabama, with plenty of drivers aiming to take hold of the lead. The Talladega Superspeedway is a track that many drivers love to engage in, so be prepared for plenty of action and many drivers looking to take home the victory.

Race Details
Date: Sun, Apr 25, 1:00 PM
Watch on: FOX
Track: Talladega Superspeedway

Betting Overview

Venues like these are driver and fan favorites because they tend to have many lead changes, with at least 20. At any given moment, you will see late charges at the end that could either result in fantastic finishes or unfortunate crashes.

With that being said, it can be difficult to gauge on who is the best to win or even finish. However, based on past success, you can get a feel for who performs best here instead of a wild driver risking it all at the end.

Head to Head Matchup to Watch

Joey Logano (111.130) and Denny Hamlin (108.989) make an interesting pair since Logano led for 45 laps before crashing last time around. This arguably led to Hamlin taking over and winning that year.

In addition, Logano has three victories total while Hamlin has two. This could be the start of an exciting but friendly rivalry between the two as they both excel well here.

Dunkel Index For This Event

The Dunkel Index is showing these top 10 drivers that could win this event. The following 10 are:

  1. Denny Hamlin - 108.989                                                                
  2. Brad Keselowski - 110.217                                                                         
  3. Martin Truex Jr - 110.316                                                                          
  4. Joey Logano - 111.130                                                                               
  5. William Byron - 113.930                                                                 
  6. Ryan Blaney - 114.566                                                                              
  7. Christopher Bell - 115.557                                                                          
  8. Kyle Larson - 116.148                                                                               
  9. Chase Elliott - 117.310                                                                           
  10. Kyle Busch - 117.624

*index is subject to changes

Drivers That Could Win

Ryan Blaney (114.566) is a bit of a wild card here in the sense that he could either take this race by storm or fall within the top 10. He won the previous two races at Talladega before Hamlin took over last year.

Joey Logano (111.130), as mentioned above, had this race in his favor before crashing. This time around, you can expect him to have some sort of race lead because he has led five or more laps in the last 10 of 11 races here.

Potential Winning Pick

Denny Hamlin (108.989) provides one of the more interesting points of view for this race. Not only did he win this race last year, but he has a fairly good record here.

Last year’s victory was the first time in 12 races at Talladega that a Toyota driver won. The last time was back in 2014 with Hamlin.

In addition, he also has four top-five finishes in his recent five races here. Over his 30 career races here, he has 13 top 10 finishes, including two victories. It all points to a close and exciting race, but definitely keep a close eye on Hamlin.

Prop Bet

Martin Truex Jr (-120) Over Aric Almirola

Truex looked like he was going to follow up his win at Martinsville with another last weekend at Richmond. He led for over 100 laps during the first half of the race and was in 2nd when he pitted during a green flag on lap 294. But a penalty for speeding cost him any chance at the checkered flag. Still, Truex managed to work has way back up to 5th for his 4th Top 5 finish of the season.

The No. 19 car has been cleaning up in the stats department as well. Truex is 3rd in ARP (8), 2nd in Average Driver Rating (109.1), 3rd in Laps Led (360), and 1st in FLR (276).

Almirola had a solid 6th place finish last week at Richmond. But prior to that, he had suffered crashes in 3 of the previous 9 races and hadn't had a Top 10 finish all season. The No. 10 car has had success at Talladega with 8 straight Top 10 finishes before a crash in last fall's race. His inability to avoid crashes has unfortunately carried over into this season.

Truex comes in rated No. 3 in the Dunkel Index, while Almirola is rated No. 14. We'll take Martin Truex Jr (-120) to finish ahead of Aric Almirola on Sunday at Talladega.

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