2021 British Open Betting Preview/Prop Plays
12 July 2021
There are not many golfers from last week’s John Deere Classic making the trip out, but one notable golfer is Lucas Glover. Glover won last week, which was his first victory in a 10-year stretch.
Tournament Details
- Date: Jul 15–18, 2021
- Course: Royal St. George's Golf Course
- Watch on: GOLF, NBC
- Purse: $10,750,000
Betting Overview
This course will be difficult to score well for many, as there are a variety of factors that play into this. Even with great ball striking, the fairways and rough are challenging, along with plenty of bunkers to go around.
In addition, England is known for windy weather, and that could also play into every shot each player takes. Being able to scramble to save for par is a necessity here.
Head to Head Matchup to Watch
Jon Rahm (-17.098) and Brooks Koepka (-25.210) are two key players to watch. Rahm is atop many leaderboards to win, while Koepka is aiming to return to his glory days before his injury.
Koepka has a great shot to be in contention of everyone else if struggling with their play here. However, he would need to be on top form if he wants to win.
Dunkel Index For This Event
The Dunkel Index is showing these top 10 golfers that could win this event. The following 10 are:
- Jon Rahm | -17.098
- Collin Morikawa | -23.101
- Jordan Spieth | -24.203
- Rory McIlroy | -24.243
- Patrick Cantlay | -24.928
- Brooks Koepka | -25.210
- Xander Schauffele | -25.801
- Sam Burns | -25.834
- Abraham Ancer | -26.258
- Jason Kokrak | -26.448
*index is subject to changes
Golfers That Could Win
Xander Schauffele (-25.801) has yet to score a major victory at all in his career. The last time he was close, he had a 2018 Open Championship second-place finish. With some good numbers around the greens, fairly young, and seeking his first major, he could definitely be in contention.
Rory McIlroy (-24.243) is another top golfer that has the experience to get the job done. His high level of play has proven to take hold in these types of events. However, he will need to be on track if he expects to score well.
Potential Winning Pick
Jon Rahm (-17.098) brings a compelling offer to the table. The odds for him are not that great, but he has the most recent standout performances to put up a win here.
He is the second-ranked golfer in the world and won the US Open recently. Back in Scotland, he placed seventh but started out hot with a 66 and 65, respectively.
In addition, he is third in strokes gained off the tee and strokes gained ball striking. Rahm had a very good opportunity, but anything can happen.
Prop Plays
Top 10 Finish: Brooks Koepka (+175)
If it’s a major, the 31-year-old out of FSU should be in the mix. A four-time major champion, Koepka has finished in the Top 10 in three of the last four majors, including Top 5s at the PGA and US Open.
The Open Championship hasn’t always brought out the best in his game. An inconsistent driver has caused him to finish outside the Top 30 in three of the last six Opens. But he did pick up a Top 5 finish (4th) in his last appearance at Royal Portrush.
Rated No. 6 in this week’s Dunkel Index, we can’t let the last major of the season slip by without taking Koepka (+175) to finish in the Top 10.
Top 10 Finish: Xander Schauffele (+188)
Widely considered the best golfer without a major, Schauffele will try to erase that by hoisting the Claret Jug this weekend.
And he looks primed to make a run with five Top 15 finishes in his last six starts. He’s also played some of this best golf at the majors with a tie for 3rd at the Masters and tie for 7th at the US Open.
The 27-year-old has the distance (22nd in driving distance) and accuracy (19th in greens in regulation percentage) to make another strong run at Royal St. George’s.
Rated No. 7 in this week’s Dunkel Index, we’ll take Schauffele (+188) to stay in contention this weekend and add another Top 10 finish to his majors resume.
Top 20 Finish: Rory McIlroy (-110)
It hasn’t been the best of seasons for McIlroy, but he can salvage something with a strong performance at Royal St. George’s. And the British Open has been his strongest major with a title in 2014 that triggered a run of four straight Top 5 finishes through 2018.
The expectations are tempered by his ongoing inconsistent play. After finishing outside the Top 50 at the Irish Open, he missed the cut at the Scottish Open while finishing 88th in the field.
Rated No. 4 in this week’s Dunkel Index, we’ll be a little more cautious with McIlroy (-110) and take him to finish in the Top 20.
Top 20 Finish: Jordan Spieth (+100)
The former champion at Royal Birkdale in 2017, Spieth has never missed a cut at the Open Championship. And he looks primed to keep that streak going in a season that has him ranked 5th in FedEx points and 6th in official money.
The 27-year-old Texan took a 1st at the Valero Texas Open in April and followed that up with a 2nd at the Charles Schwab Challenge in May. He hasn’t been quite as dominant in the major so far with a 46th at the Masters and 30th at the PGA Championship. But he did slip into the Top 20 with a 19th in the US Open at Torrey Pines.
Rated No. 3 in this week’s Dunkel Index, we'll go with the former champ (+100) to put together another strong Open Championship and finish in the Top 20.
Top 30 Finish: Patrick Cantlay (-125)
The amazing comeback from the former No. 1 amateur player following a stress fracture in his vertebrae has continued this season. Currently ranked No. 1 in FedEx Cup points, the 29-year-old out of UCLA put it all together with a victory at the Memorial in June.
He’s stayed consistent since then with a 15th at the US Open and 13th at the Travelers. He also took a Top 30 (23rd) at the PGA Championship. Overall, Cantlay has finished in the Top 25 in 13 of 19 tournaments.
Rated No. 5 in this week’s Dunkel Index, we like Cantlay (-125) to stay hot and finish in the Top 30.
Top 30 Finish: Collin Morikawa (+100)
Last week’s Scottish Open was supposed to be a tune up for the 24-year-old Cal alum, but instead turned into a headache as he suffered through a stretch of four straight bogies on Sunday to finish 71st.
It was the worst tournament finish in his young career and doesn’t build a ton of confidence heading to Royal St. George’s. But there’s no denying what Morikawa can do when he’s right. He’s ranked in the Top 5 in both greens in regulation (2nd) and birdie average (1st). And in his last two Tour events, he finished 2nd at the Memorial and 4th at the US Open.
Rated No. 2 in this week’s Dunkel Index, we’ll take Morikawa (+100) at a very reasonable price to finish in the Top 30.
Top 40 Finish: Sam Burns (+125)
Burns was blistering hot in April and May with a 4th at the Zurich Classic, 1st at the Valspar and 2nd at the Byron Nelson. The 24-year-old Louisiana native cooled off significantly following that stretch with his best finish coming at the Memorial (50th).
But a 13th at his last event at the Travelers could be a sign that Burns is starting to heat up again. Ranked in the Top 40 in both driving distance (32nd) and greens in regulation (32nd), he has the distance and accuracy to make his first Open Championship a memorable one.
Rated No. 8 in this week’s Dunkel Index, we’ll take a flyer on Burns (+125) to finish in the Top 40.
Top 40 Finish: Abraham Ancer (+120)
Ancer has made the cut in 21 of his 22 events this season, including six Top 10 finishes. He came in 4th in his most recent tournament – the Travelers – and added a hole-in-one during the final round.
The former Oklahoma Sooner missed the cut at the US Open, but finished a strong 8th in the PGA Championship at Kiawah. He also finished in the Top 30 (26th) at the Masters.
Rated No. 9 in this week’s Dunkel Index, we’ll look for Abraham (+120) to be the Ancer and finish in the Top 40.
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