2021 Blue Emu 500 Betting Preview/Prop Bet

NASCAR Previews

NASCAR will be arriving back on track with the Blue-Emu Maximum Pain Relief 500 headlining on April 10. Many bettors will be pleased to see an actual track once again after a wild dirt track in the last race.

Betting Overview

If you are a driver and want to take a victory lap here, you will need to be in the top few spots by the end of the second stage. Looking back at when stage racing took effect in 2017, the winner of this race has finished either first (four times), second (two times), or third (once) when looking at seven out of the last eight second stages.

For example, this trend has been true when you look at both races in 2019 and last year. Everyone got to see the race winner take victory in the second stage, and the same happened in 2018 with a playoff.

Head to Head Matchup to Watch

Kyle Busch (117.916) and William Byron (112.959)

Busch did not have a great year last season here. However, he has had eight top-five finishes out of his nine tries before, which also includes two victories.

Byron had a runner-up finish in the 2019 playoff races, and he placed eighth last year, so these two together should make an interesting pair to watch.

Dunkel Index For This Event

The Dunkel Index is showing these top 10 drivers that could win this event. The following 10 are:

  1. Martin Truex Jr 101.029                                                                               
  2. Denny Hamlin 106.780                                                                                   
  3. Ryan Blaney 107.551                                                                                   
  4. Joey Logano 109.298                                                                                   
  5. Kyle Larson 109.903                                                                               
  6. Kevin Harvick 111.586                                                                                   
  7. Aric Almirola 112.268                                                                                    
  8. William Byron 112.959                                                                                   
  9. Brad Keselowski 113.003                                                                                
  10. Chase Elliott 114.968

*index is subject to changes 

Drivers That Could Win 

Joey Logano (109.298)

Logano had a pair of top-five finishes at Martinsville last season. This improved his resume to add five top 10's out of his last six attempts. He arguably has the best momentum since he is coming off of the dirt track win in Bristol.

Martin Truex Jr. (101.029)

Truex Jr. is as dangerous as ever here, by winning two of the last three Martinsville races. This includes last season's victory. 

However, in just last fall, he led by 129 laps but could not pull away with the victory. Truex also has five top-five finishes out of his last seven tries here. 

Potential Winning Pick 

Brad Keselowski (113.003)

It would be difficult to bet against the driver who has had the most recent and consistent success here. He has won this race in 2017 and in 2019. 

Keselowski also has five consecutive top-five finishes, which is coming off of nine out of his last ten starts. His worst finish here in that span has been 10th.

Looking at the last decade of winners, there have been nine different drivers who took the victory here in the spring race. Keselowski has been the only one to repeat here in that time frame.

Prop Bet

Kyle Larson (-120) Over Kyle Busch

Larson hasn’t skipped a beat since making his return to racing this season. He picked up a win at Las Vegas and ran 2nd in Atlanta. Not even a disappointing 29th last week at Bristol after starting out in the poll position can dampen Larson’s return.

On the season, the No. 5 car leads the field in laps led (379), fastest laps run (237) and quality passes (446). His average running position (9.5) is 4th overall.

Busch has been looking for a bounce back season after a disappointing 2020. He has had his moments as his 3 Top 10s can attest. But he also has 4 finishes of 14th or worse.

The inconsistency is reminiscent of last year’s start when he had 4 Top 5s combined with 3 finishes of 15th or worse. Busch ran 17th at Bristol and overall has an average running position of 13.9.

Larson comes into this weekend's race rated No. 5 in the Dunkel Index while Busch is rated No. 13. With both drivers looking for a stronger performance at Martinsville, we’ll take the more consistent Larson (-120) to finish ahead of Kyle Busch.

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