Baylor vs. Tarleton State Dunkel Predictions & Vegas Odds - Nov. 14

The Baylor Bears (2-0) take on the Tarleton State Texans (2-2) as 24-point favorites on Friday, November 14, 2025 at 9 p.m. ET on ESPN+. The over/under for the matchup is 153.5.

Baylor heads into this matchup on the heels of a 78-69 victory over Washington on Sunday. Cameron Carr scored a team-best 16 points for Baylor in the victory. Tarleton State heads into this contest on the heels of a 76-62 victory over Merrimack on Tuesday. Chris Mpaka scored 24 points in Tarleton State's victory, leading the team.

Baylor vs. Tarleton State Odds and Game Time

• When: Friday, November 14, 2025 at 9 p.m. ET
• Where: Foster Pavilion in Waco, Texas
• Spread favorite: Baylor -24
• Moneyline favorite: Baylor -10000
• Moneyline underdog: Tarleton State +2500
• Over/Under: 153.5 points

How to watch Baylor vs. Tarleton State

• TV Channel: ESPN+
• Check out the rest of our Dunkel Index NCAA Basketball Picks!

Betting the Over/Under: Baylor vs. Tarleton State

• Last year, Baylor's games finished over 153.5 points scored, its current matchup's total, seven (out of 34) times.
• Last year, three of Tarleton State's 30 matchups went over 153.5 total points scored.
• These teams averaged a combined 139.4 points per game a season ago, 14.1 fewer points than the total of 153.5 set for this game.
• Opponents of the two teams averaged a combined 14.1 fewer points per game (139.4) last season than this game's total of 153.5 points.
• The average point total in Baylor's games last year was 7.6 fewer points than the total of 153.5 in this matchup.
• Tarleton State's games in 2024 averaged a total of 132.9 points, 20.6 fewer than the point total in this matchup.

Betting the Spread: Baylor vs. Tarleton State

• Baylor went 13-20-1 ATS last season.
• The Bears were favored by 24 points or more four times last season, and covered the spread in two of those matchups.
• Tarleton State went 16-14-0 ATS last season.
• The Texans were an underdog by 24 points or more three times last season, and covered the spread in two of those games.
• Baylor was 8-7 against the spread, and 12-3 overall, at home last season.
• At home last season, as a 24-point favorite or greater, Baylor had two wins ATS (2-2).
• On the road last season, Tarleton State was 1-14 overall and 5-10 against the spread.

Betting the Moneyline: Baylor vs. Tarleton State

• Baylor won 18 of the 21 games it was the moneyline favorite last season (85.7%).
• The Bears won all three games they played as a moneyline favorite with odds of -10000 or shorter.
• Based on this contest's moneyline, Baylor has an implied win probability of 99.0%.
• Tarleton State was underdogs in 25 games last season and won five (20%) of those contests.
• The Texans played as an underdog of +2500 or more twice last season and lost both games.
• Oddsmakers have implied with the moneyline set for this matchup that Tarleton State has a 3.8% chance to win.